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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending September 1, 2012

Just as Labor Day marks the end of summer for most Americans, it also signals the beginning of the presidential campaign season for many. Now they’ll focus on the race with Election Day looming just two months away.

So where do President Obama and Mitt Romney stand at this point? Heading into the Republican National Convention, the candidates have been even for months in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll. At week’s end, Romney was starting to enjoy a modest bounce from his convention. President Obama expects to do the same next week.

Most Think Next President Likely to Be Republican

Most voters still think the next president is likely to be a Republican, but belief that it’s very likely has changed little for months.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 60% of Likely U.S. Voters believe that the next president will be a Republican. Twenty-five percent (25%) considerate it unlikely that President Obama will be succeeded by a Republican. Sixteen percent (16%) aren’t sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 29-30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

48% Trust Romney More on Economy; 44% Trust Obama More

Voters still trust Mitt Romney more than President Obama when it comes to handling the economy - but just barely. They have more confidence in the president when it comes to national security, and as for taxes, health care and energy policy, the presidential hopefuls are virtually tied, indicative of how close the race remains.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters trust Romney more on the economy, while 44% have more confidence in the president. (To see survey question wording, click here.)  

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 26-27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

28% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Twenty eight percent (28%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, August 26.

That's down one point from the week before.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 20-26, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 42%, Democrats 42%

For the first time since November, Republicans and Democrats run even on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey for the week ending Sunday, August 26 shows that 42% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while another 42% would choose the Democrat instead.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from August 20-26, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

8% Think Congress Is Doing A Good Job

The number of voters nationwide who believe Congress is doing a good job remains in single digits.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just eight percent (8%) of Likely U.S. Voters think Congress is doing a good job. Sixty-four percent (64%) give the legislature a poor rating on its job performance. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 22-23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Most Favor Health Care Repeal, Expect Law to Increase Costs

Most voters still support repeal of President Obama’s national health care law and believe it will increase the deficit and the cost of health care.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 51% favor repeal, while 41% are opposed. This includes 40% who Strongly Favor repeal of the health care measure and 31% who Strongly Oppose it. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 24-25, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls -- For The Week Ending August 25, 2012

Voters are clear that the economy is the most important issue in this year’s presidential campaign, but right now “legitimate rape” and a plan to reform Medicare seem to be dominating much of the media coverage.

Short- and long-term confidence in the nation’s economy continues to hover around lows for the year.  

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of homeowners believe the value of their home will go down over the next year. One-in-four (24%) think the value of their home will go down even further over the next five years. Fewer than half (47%) believe their home is worth more than what they still owe on the mortgage.  

Twenty-six percent (26%) say their home is worth less now than when they bought it.

Virginia Senate: Allen (R) 45%, Kaine (D) 45%

The race for Virginia’s open U.S. Senate seat remains one of the tightest of the year.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Virginia shows Republican George Allen and Democrat Tim Kaine each drawing 45% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on August 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

41% Say Situation in Afghanistan Will Get Worse in Near Future

The death toll of U.S. troops in Afghanistan rose above 2,000 earlier this month, more voters believe the situation there will get worse.  Still, voters tend to believe the United States and its allies are winning the War on Terror.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that 41% think the situation in Afghanistan will get worse in the next six months. Just 18% predict the situation will get better, while 31% say it will remain about the same. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 20-21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Virginia: Romney 47%, Obama 47%

Just days before Republicans make Mitt Romney’s candidacy official, he and President Obama are running dead even in the critical battleground state of Virginia.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Virginia shows Romney and Obama each with 47% support. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and another three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on August 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Mexico Senate: Heinrich (D) 48%, Wilson (R) 41%

Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich receives his highest level of support yet against former Congresswoman Heather Wilson in New Mexico’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of New Mexico Likely Voters shows Heinrich with 48% of the vote to Wilson’s 41%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This New Mexico survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on August 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Mexico Senate: Heinrich (D) 48%, Wilson (R) 41%

Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich receives his highest level of support yet against former Congresswoman Heather Wilson in New Mexico’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of New Mexico Likely Voters shows Heinrich with 48% of the vote to Wilson’s 41%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This New Mexico survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on August 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Missouri Senate: McCaskill (D) 48%, Akin (R) 38%

What a difference one TV interview can make. Embattled Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill has now jumped to a 10-point lead over her Republican challenger, Congressman Todd Akin, in Missouri’s U.S. Senate race. Most Missouri Republicans want Akin to quit the race while most Missouri Democrats want him to stay.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Show Me State finds McCaskill earning 48% support to Akin’s 38%. Nine percent (9%) like some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Missouri was conducted on August 22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Connecticut: Obama 51%, Romney 43%

President Obama posts an eight-point lead over Mitt Romney in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the presidential race in Connecticut.

A new telephone survey of Likely Connecticut Voters shows the president with 51% support, while Romney picks up 43% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and another three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Connecticut survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on August 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

29% Say U.S. Heading In Right Direction

For the second week in a row, 29% of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, August 19.

From July 25 through December 11 of last year, voter confidence in the nation's current course resembled levels measured in the final months of the George W. Bush administration, remaining in the narrow range of 14% to 19%. That finding began climbing in early January of this year to a high of 34% in the second week of February and has been in the high 20s to low 30s in weekly tracking ever since.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 13-19, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Connecticut Senate: McMahon (R) 49%, Murphy (D) 46%

Former wrestling executive Linda McMahon holds a narrow lead over Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at Connecticut’s U.S. Senate race.

A new telephone survey of Likely Voters in Connecticut shows McMahon with 49% of the vote to Murphy’s 46%.  One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Connecticut survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on August 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Montana: Romney 55%, Obama 38%

Montana remains Romney country.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Montana Voters shows Mitt Romney earning 55% support to President Obama’s 38%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and another four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Montana survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on August 20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Mexico: Obama 52%, Romney 38%

President Obama remains well ahead of Mitt Romney in New Mexico.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama earning 52% support, while Romney receives 38% of the vote.  Nine percent (9%) prefer some other candidate, and one percent (1%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This New Mexico survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on August 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

Montana Senate: Rehberg (R) 47%, Tester (D) 43%

Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg continues to hold a modest lead over incumbent Jon Tester in Montana’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Montana Voters shows Rehberg with 47% support to Tester’s 43%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Montana survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on August 20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.