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Florida Senate: Nelson (D) 46%, Mack (R) 45%

After several months in which Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson appeared to have a comfortable lead over Republican Connie Mack in Florida’s U.S. Senate race, the race is now virtually even.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Nelson earning 46% of the vote, while Mack picks up support from 45%.  Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and another five percent (5%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on October 11, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Hampshire Governor: Hassan (D) 48%, Lamontagne (R) 46%

Democrat Maggie Hassan now edges Republican Ovide Lamontagne in New Hampshire’s gubernatorial race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Granite State finds Hassan earning 48% of the vote, while Lamontagne receives 46% support.  Six percent (6%) are still undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This New Hampshire survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending October 13, 2012

The math is pretty simple: The Big Three are Florida, Ohio and Virginia. It is virtually impossible for Mitt Romney to win the White House without winning at least two of the three, and right now he’s ahead by two in Virginia and has widened his lead in Florida to four. 

If Romney wins all three states, he is likely to win the election. President Obama can keep his job if he wins two out of the three, and the president is still holding on in Ohio where he leads by one. 

Yet while many pundits have suggested that the president’s reelection campaign is in free fall since his subpar debate performance, Scott Rasmussen argues in his latest weekly syndicated column that it’s not quite that simple. “The reality is that a very close race shifted every so slightly from narrowly favoring President Obama to narrowly favoring Mitt Romney."

Ohio Senate: Brown (D) 47%, Mandel (R) 46%

Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and his Republican challenger Josh Mandel remain locked in a tight contest in Ohio.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters finds Brown with 47% support to Mandel’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

A week ago, the race was a 46% to 46% tie. Ohio remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings. Brown was first elected to the Senate in 2006 by a 56% to 44% margin.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on October 10, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 45%

President Obama continues to earn over 50% of the vote in Michigan, but his lead over Mitt Romney has narrowed a bit this month.

The latest Ramussen Reports national telephone survey finds 52% of Likely Voters in Michigan support the president, while 45% give their vote to Romney. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Michigan was conducted on October 11, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama 47%

Mitt Romney now has a two-point lead in Virginia.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters shows Romney with 49% of the vote, while President Obama earns 47% support. One percent (1%) likes another candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on October 11, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 47%

Mitt Romney has crossed the 50% mark for the first time to widen his lead to four points in Florida.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters finds Romney with 51% support to President Obama’s 47%. Two percent (2%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on October 11, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is  conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Wisconsin Senate: Baldwin (D) 51%, Thompson (R) 47%

Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin has reached the 50% mark of support against former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows Baldwin with 51% of the vote to Thompson’s 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Wisconsin survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Massachusetts Senate: Warren (D) 49%, Brown (R) 47%

After months of running even, Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren has inched ahead of Republican incumbent Scott Brown in Massachusetts' fiercely contested U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Massachusetts Voters finds Warren picking up 49% of the vote to Brown’s 47%.  Four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Massachusetts was conducted on October 10, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Pennsylvania Senate: Casey (D) 49%, Smith (R) 45%

Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey, Jr. continues to attract 49% support from Pennsylvania voters, but his lead over Republican challenger Tom Smith is shrinking.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Pennsylvania Voters shows Casey leading by four, 49% to 45%. One percent (1%) plans to vote for someone else, while five percent (5%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Pennsylvania survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

North Carolina: Romney 51%, Obama 48%

At the beginning of the year, North Carolina was designated by Rasmussen Reports as one of the Core Four states that would decide Election 2012. As the year has worn on, the Tar Heel State has continued to narrowly favor Mitt Romney over President Obama.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely North Carolina voters shows Romney attracting 51% of the vote, while Obama earns support from 48%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted on October 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 47%

It’s still a one-point presidential race in Ohio, a critical battleground state where voters have already begun casting their ballots.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio voters shows President Obama with 48% support to Mitt Romney’s 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on October 10, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is  onducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

38% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, October 7.

That’s up a point from 37% the week before and is the highest level of optimism since June 2009. The latest finding is up 14 points from 24% at the beginning of the year and up 22 points from 16% a year ago.

From July 25 through December 11 of last year, voter confidence in the nation's current course resembled levels measured in the final months of the George W. Bush administration, remaining in the narrow range of 14% to 19%. That finding began climbing in early January of this year to a high of 34% in the second week of February and then regularly tracked in the high 20s to low 30s until the week of September 3-9.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen October 1-7, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Hampshire: Romney 48%, Obama 48%

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are now tied in the swing state of New Hampshire.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in New Hampshire shows both candidates earning 48% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This New Hampshire survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 49%

President Obama maintains a slight edge over Mitt Romney in Wisconsin.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Badger State finds Obama with 51% support, while Romney picks up 49% of the vote. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Wisconsin survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 46%

President Obama still earns more than 50% support against Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Pennsylvania Voters shows the president with 51% of the vote to Romney’s 46%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and another one percent (1%) remains undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Take the Rasmussen Challenge for a chance to win an IPad.  This week's entries will be accepted until 11:59pm ET tonight.

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This Pennsylvania survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Nevada Senate: Heller (R) 48%, Berkley (D) 45%

Incumbent Republican Dean Heller still holds a small lead over his Democratic challenger, Congresswoman Shelley Berkley, in Nevada’s hotly contested U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Nevada Voters shows Heller earning 48% support to Berkley’s 45%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Nevada survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Connecticut: Obama 51%, Romney 45%

President Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in Connecticut.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama with 51% support to 45% for Romney.  One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Connecticut survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.  See methodology.

Nevada: Romney 47%, Obama 47%

President Obama and Mitt Romney are now tied in Nevada.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Nevada Voters shows both candidates with 47% support. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) more are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Nevada was conducted on October 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Connecticut Senate: Murphy (D) 51%, McMahon (R) 46%

Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy has now moved to five-point lead over Republican businesswoman Linda McMahon in Connecticut’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Connecticut Voters shows Murphy with 51% of the vote, while McMahon earns 46% support. Two percent (2%) favor another candidate in the race, and one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The two candidates met in their first debate late Sunday morning. This poll was conducted later that day.

Additionally, Murphy’s lead is largely derived from “leaners.” These are people who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but indicate they are leaning towards one candidate when asked a follow-up question. Without leaners, it’s Murphy 46% and McMahon 45%. This is consistent with the notion that the state’s underlying Democratic tilt will help Murphy in the final analysis.

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This Connecticut survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.  See methodology.