White House Watch: Trump 40%, Clinton 39%, Johnson 7%, Stein 3%

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention lead has disappeared, putting her behind Donald Trump for the first time nationally since mid-July.

The latest weekly Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 40% support to Clinton’s 39% among Likely U.S. Voters, after Clinton led 42% to 38% a week ago. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson now earns seven percent (7%) of the vote, down from nine percent (9%) the previous two weeks, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein picks up three percent (3%) support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Clinton's support has been trending down from a high of 44% in early August just after the Democratic National Convention. This is her lowest level of support since mid-July. Trump's support has been eroding, too, from his high of 44% at that time. A one-point lead is statistically insignificant in a survey with a +/- 3 percentage point of margin of error. It highlights, however, that this remains a very close race.

Both major candidates have lost some support this week from voters in their respective parties. Trump now has the backing of 71% of Republicans, down from 76% a week ago. Clinton has 73% of the Democratic vote, down from 79% in the previous survey. Trump attracts 15% of Democrats, while 12% of Republicans prefer Clinton. The GOP nominee continues to hold a small lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party, this week leading 36% to 28%.

Johnson draws support from eight percent (8%) of Republicans, three percent (3%) of Democrats and 12% of unaffiliated voters. Stein earns six percent (6%) of the vote among unaffiliateds.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 29-30, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

[Rasmussen Reports analysts Amy Holmes  and Fran Coombs are available for interested media. Please call 732-776-9777 ext. 205 for interviews.]

Some have suggested that Trump has hidden support among voters who are unwilling to say publicly where they stand because they’re fearful of criticism. We won’t know for sure until Election Day, but Republicans are clearly more reluctant than Democrats this year to say how they are going to vote.

Clinton continues to lead Trump among those under 40, while Trump is ahead among older voters.

Trump holds a 44% to 37% lead among men, while Clinton holds a similar 41% to 36% advantage among women.

Blacks continue to strongly support Clinton, while Trump leads by 10 among whites. Other minority voters prefer Clinton 43% to 35%.

A majority of all voters think both of the major presidential candidates are liars and give them equally low marks as potential used car salesmen.

Most voters believe the media, not the candidates, are driving the agenda this election season.

The president election is shaping up as a referendum on the federal government and its actions. Supporters of Trump really dislike the feds, while voters who support Clinton think they’re great.

Illegal immigration has been a major issue this election, particularly for Trump’s campaign, but voter support for legalizing the millions of illegal immigrants in this country has risen to its highest level in regular polling since 2008. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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