Trump Change: ‘The Donald’ Takes A Fall

Donald Trump insists his second-place showing in Monday’s Iowa caucus isn’t bad, but perception among his fellow Republicans that he will be the party’s presidential nominee has fallen sharply this week.

Rasmussen Reports’ latest weekly Trump Change survey finds that most Likely Republican Voters (61%) still believe Trump is likely to be the GOP nominee, but that’s down from a high of 74% a week ago. Even more noticeably, the overall finding includes only 24% who think Trump is Very Likely to win the nomination, down from a high of 40% two weeks ago.

Thirty-six percent (36%) say Trump is unlikely to be the eventual nominee, with 14% who say it’s Not At All Likely. This compares to 22% and six percent (6%) respectively a week ago. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This marks the lowest level of confidence among Republicans in Trump’s nomination since mid-November before the terrorist attacks in Paris. Following that incident, belief in Trump as the likely nominee climbed into the 60s and has steadily increased since then.

When Trump announced his candidacy in mid-June of last year, however, just 27% of Republicans – and 23% of all voters – said he was likely to end up as the 2016 GOP nominee. 

Among all likely voters, 52% think Trump will win the Republican nomination this year, down from 63% last week, the highest level of expectation since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly Trump Change survey last August. This now includes just 19% who feel his nomination is Very Likely, compared to last week’s all-time high of 29%. Forty-three percent (43%) consider a Trump nomination unlikely, with 18% who say it’s Not At All Likely, reflecting a double-digit jump in both numbers.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 3-4, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Rasmussen Reports will release new numbers on the overall race for the Republican presidential nomination Monday morning at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. We’ll release our latest findings on the Democratic presidential race at 10:30 a.m. today.

Men remain more confident than women that Trump will end up as the Republican nominee.

Whites think Trump will win more than blacks and other minority voters do.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of voters not affiliated with either major party still believe Trump will get the nomination, compared to 44% of Democrats.

With just the first round of the presidential contest over, most voters still think the next occupant of the White House is likely to be a Republican.

Voters remain pessimistic about America's future and continue to believe cutting the size of the federal government may help. Just 31% of voters think the country is heading in the right direction.

Voters still express skepticism about the fairness of elections in this country. Just 21% believe the federal government today has the consent of the governed.

Sixty percent (60%) of Democrats – and 31% of all voters - say they would vote for President Obama if he could legally seek a third term. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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