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Trump Change: ‘The Donald’ Edges Higher

Friday, August 28, 2015

This week, Donald Trump made headlines with a political rally in a football stadium and his televised confrontation with Univision activist/commentator Jorge Ramos. Rasmussen Reports’ latest Trump Change survey shows belief that Trump will be the next Republican presidential nominee inching up among both GOP voters and voters in general.

A new national telephone survey finds that 59% of Likely Republican Voters now believe Trump is likely to be their party’s nominee for president in 2016, up barely from 57% a week ago.  But the latest finding includes 29% who say a Trump nomination is Very Likely, a view shared last week by just 25%. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This compares to 27% of Republicans who felt a Trump nomination was likely when he formally announced his candidacy in mid-June. At that time, only nine percent (9%) felt Trump was Very Likely to be the GOP nominee.

Among all likely voters, 49% now think Trump is likely to be the eventual nominee, with 21% who say it’s Very Likely. This overall finding is unchanged from a week ago, but only 17% thought Trump was Very Likely to be nominated in that survey. Forty-six percent (46%) say Trump is not likely to be the nominee, including 21% who feel it is Not At All Likely.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of GOP voters still think Trump is unlikely to be the eventual nominee, but that includes only 12% who say it’s Not At All Likely.

Rasmussen Reports Managing Editor Fran Coombs or spokesman Leon Sculti are available for media comment on these poll results. Call 732-776-9777x205 or send e-mail to leon.sculti@rasmussenreports.com to schedule now.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on August 25-26, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Trump now leads the pack of Republican hopefuls which has grown to include 17 major contenders. His bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, once seen as a pipe dream, is now a topic of serious discussion. So for the near future at least, Rasmussen Reports intends to track Trump’s race for the White House in a weekly Friday feature we’re calling Trump Change.

Trump has seen a surge of support in part because of his tough talk on illegal immigration and has pulled the GOP field in his direction. Republican voters consider the Hispanic vote important to their presidential chances next year but aren’t overly concerned that a hard-line on illegal immigration will hurt them with those voters. 

Men consider Trump’s nomination more likely than women do. Voters under 40 believe more strongly than their elders do that Trump is unlikely to be the nominee.

Conservatives feel much more strongly than moderates and liberals that the billionaire businessman is likely to be the GOP standard-bearer.

Voters who make less than $50,000 a year are more confident than those who earn more that Trump will win the nomination.

Trump during the first pre-primary debate reiterated a point he’s made throughout his campaign that “the big problem this country has is being politically correct." Most Americans agree.

The contest for the 2016 Democratic nomination is still Hillary Clinton’s to lose. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has surged significantly in Rasmussen Reports' latest look at the Democratic presidential race, but Clinton still leads him by a two-to-one margin.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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