Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 48%, Democrats 39%
Election Day is just two weeks away, and Republican candidates hold a nine-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 17, 2010.
Forty-eight percent (48%) of respondents say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 39% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.
Even more worrisome for Democrats, however, is the finding that among the voters who are most closely following the midterm elections Republicans hold a 55% to 36% lead.
While the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead on the Generic Ballot for over a year, and their lead has run as high as 12 points and as low as three points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold a 17-point lead.
The Republican advantage comes from a number of factors. One is the fact that midterm elections typically feature an older electorate with a smaller share of minority voters. Additionally, in 2010, there is clearly an enthusiasm gap favoring the GOP.
Results for this survey are compiled on a full-week basis, and crosstabs for full-week results and generic ballot trends are available for Platinum Members only.
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