Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 47% Democrats 39%

With just three weeks to go until Election Day, Republicans hold an eight-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

Polling for the week ending Sunday, October 10, shows that 47% of Likely Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 39% prefer the Democrat.

The Republican advantage comes from a number of factors. One is the fact that midterm elections typically feature an older electorate with a smaller share of minority voters. Additionally, in 2010, there is clearly an enthusiasm gap favoring the GOP.

Due to these and other factors, the data projects that 35% of voters this year will be Republicans, while 33% will be Democrats. In the previous midterm election of 2006, the Democrats had a two-percentage point advantage. Unaffiliated voters strongly favored Democrats in 2006 and strongly favor Republicans this year.

“For the third election cycle in a row, voters are voting against the party in power,” says Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports. “It will be interesting to see how those in power after Election Day respond.”

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