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GOP Lead Shrinks on Congressional Ballot

The 2022 midterm elections are now 165 days away, and Republicans have a six-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another seven percent (7%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Republicans have lost three points of their advantage since last week, when they led 48%-39%. The Generic Congressional Ballot is now the closest it’s been all year.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In May 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a one-point advantage (43% to 42%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on May 22-26, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Republican lead on the congressional ballot is due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and an 11-point advantage among independents. While 87% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, only 81% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 42% would vote Republican and 31% would vote Democrat, while 12% would vote for some other candidate and 15% are undecided.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of whites, 22% of Black voters and 43% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Black voters, 37% of whites and 43% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has widened in the latest findings, with men (52%) now nine points more likely than women voters (43%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was seven points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a margin of 53% to 37%, but 53% of voters ages 40-64 and 54% of those 65 and older would vote Republican if the election were held today.

Breaking down the electorate by income brackets, Republicans enjoy their largest advantage – 52% to 38% – among voters earning between $50,000 and $100,000 a year. Democrats lead among those with annual incomes over $100,000.

The Republican advantage is strongest among entrepreneurs and retirees, who favor the GOP by a 15-point margin.

Less than six months away from the congressional midterms, Republicans are more fired up than Democrats about voting this November.

Protecting the integrity of elections remains a high priority for American voters, most of whom still suspect there was cheating in the 2020 presidential election.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on May 22-26, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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