GOP Now +5 on Generic Congressional Ballot

Less than six months before Election Day, Republicans have a five-point lead in their battle to maintain their narrow House majority.. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 42% would vote for the Democrat. Ten percent (10%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The GOP’s advantage has narrowed slightly since March, when they led by six points – 47% to 41% – over Democrats. Two years ago, in May 2022, Republicans had a six-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. In the final poll before Election Day 2022, Republicans held a five-point lead, and scored a net gain of nine seats to capture a 222-213 House majority. 

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The survey of 1,092 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on May 15-16 and 19, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The GOP’s lead on the generic ballot is due mainly to greater partisan intensity. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Republicans would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate if the election were held today, while 80% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 40% would vote Republican and 36% would vote Democrat, while 24% are undecided. The Republican advantage with independents has shrunk significantly since March, when the GOP enjoyed a 15-point margin – 51% to 36% – among unaffiliated voters.

There is a substantial “gender gap” in the generic ballot, with men favoring Republicans by an 11-point margin – 51% to 40% – while women voters prefer Democrats by a slender margin, 45% to 44%.

Voters under 40 now favor Democrats by a five-point margin (47% to 42%), while those ages 40-64 favor Republicans by a 10-point margin (49% to 39%), and voters 65 and older favor the GOP by nine points, 51% to 42%.

Fifty percent (50%) of whites, 28% of black voters, 61% of Hispanics and 34% of other minorities favor Republicans, while 41% of whites, 59% of black voters, 35% of Hispanics and 44% of other minorities would vote Democrat if the election were held today.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of self-identified liberal voters would vote for Democrats, while 76% of conservatives prefer Republican candidates for Congress. Among moderate voters, 47% favor Democrats and 36% would vote GOP.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, voters earning between $30,000 and $100,000 a year favor Republicans by a five-point margin, 48% to 43%.

As the so-called “hush money” trial of former President Donald Trump nears its conclusion, most voters expect the defendant to be found guilty. 

Given a choice between granting amnesty to illegal immigrants and deporting all of them, Americans voters favor deportation by a double-digit margin. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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