Republican Congressional Lead Tightens
The 2022 midterm elections are now 144 days away, and Republicans have a five-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another nine percent (9%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
The GOP lead has shrunk by four points since last week, when they led 48%-39%.The GOP has led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year.
Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.
In June 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a four-point advantage (45% to 41%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on June 12-16, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
The Republican lead on the congressional ballot is mainly due to a 14-point advantage among independents. Partisan intensity is nearly equal, as 87% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, while 84% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, however, 42% would vote Republican and 28% would vote Democrat, while 10% would vote for some other candidate and 20% are undecided.
Fifty-two percent (52%) of whites, 21% of black voters and 44% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty-two percent (62%) of black voters, 37% of whites and 40% of other minorities would vote Democrat.
The so-called “gender gap” has widened in the latest findings, with men (50%) now eight points more likely than women voters (42%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was three points last weeko.
Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a margin of 49% to 35%, but 50% of voters ages 40-64 and 55% of those 65 and older would vote Republican if the election were held today.
Breaking down the electorate by income brackets, Republicans enjoy their largest advantage – 50% to 40% – among voters earning between $50,000 and $100,000 a year. Democrats lead 48% to 38% among those with annual incomes over $200,000.
The Republican advantage is strongest among entrepreneurs, who favor the GOP by a 15-point margin, while Democrats now lead by 11 points among government employees.
While a majority of voters believe the congressional investigation of the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot is important, most will watch little if any of the committee’s televised hearings.
Nearly half of voters believe President Joe Biden and Major League Baseball should apologize to Georgia after last year’s controversy over the state’s new election law.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on June 12-16 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.
We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.
Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.
To learn more about our methodology, click here.