Minnesota Senate: Flanagan 48%, Tafoya 45%

Democrat Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leads by three points over Republican Michele Tafoya in the race to fill the Minnesota Senate seat vacated by the retirement of Democratic Sen. Tina Smith.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 48% of Likely Minnesota voters would vote for Flanagan, while 45% would vote for Tafoya. Seven percent (7%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Smith’s retirement after one term created the open seat in Minnesota, a state that Democrat Kamala Harris won 51% to 47% in 2024.

Flanagan is supported by 94% of Democratic voters, as well as six percent (6%) of Republicans and 40% of voters not affiliated with either major party. Ninety-one percent (91%) of Republicans would vote for Tafoya, along with four percent (4%) of Democrats and 42% of unaffiliated voters. Seventeen percent (17%) of unaffiliated voters are still undecided.

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The survey of 856 Minnesota Likely Voters was conducted on October 5-7, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The “gender gap” is a net 11 points in the Minnesota Senate race. Women voters favor Flanagan by a nine-point margin, 50% to 41%, while men support Tafoya 48% to 46%.

Forty-six percent (46%) of whites, 54% of black voters, 55% of Hispanics and 63% of other minorities would vote for Flanagan, while Tafoya is supported by 48% of whites, 27% of black voters, 42% of Hispanics and 26% of other minorities.

Flanagan leads 62% to 25% among Minnesota voters under 30, while Tafoya leads 52% to 39% among those ages 50 to 64.

Ninety percent (90%) of Very Liberal voters would vote for Flanagan while Tafoya is favored by 91% of Very Conservatives voters. Among moderate voters in Minnesota, Flanagan leads by 28 points, 54% to 26%.

Among those who voted for Harris in the 2024 presidential election, 86% would vote for Flanagan, while Tafoya is favored by 87% of Donald Trump voters.

Half of American voters want to give amnesty to illegal immigrants, a majority that includes two-thirds of Democrats. 

A majority of voters say they will vote early – either by mail or in person – in this year’s midterm elections.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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