Iowa Senate: Hinson 47%, Turek 46%

Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson has moved ahead of Democrat state Rep. Josh Turek in the race to fill the Iowa Senate seat vacated by the retirement of Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 47% of Likely Iowa voters would vote for Hinson, while 46% would vote for Turek. Three percent (3%) say they would vote for Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn, and five percent (5%) are not sure. In early October, Turek led by four points, 47% to 43%. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

The neck-and-neck Senate race is remarkable in a state Donald Trump won by a 13-point margin in 2024. 

Hinson gets support from 86% of Iowa’s Republican voters, as well as eight percent (8%) of Democrats and 37% of voters not affiliated with either major party. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Democrats would vote for Turek, along with eight percent (8%) of Republicans and 49% of unaffiliated voters. Eight percent (8%) of unaffiliated voters are still undecided.

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The survey of 901 Iowa Likely Voters was conducted on October 27-31, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of all Iowa Likely Voters say they are excited about voting in this year’s elections for Congress, including 58% who are Very Excited. More Democrats (70%) than Republicans (55%) or unaffiliated voters (50%) describe themselves as Very Excited about the midterm elections.

The “gender gap” in Iowa is a net 27 points. Men favor Hinson by a 15-point margin, 54% to 39%, while women voters prefer Turek by a 12-point margin, 52% to 40%.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of whites, 26% of black voters, 39% of Hispanics and 52% of other minorities would vote for Hinson, while Turek is supported by 45% of whites, 56% of black voters, 61% of Hispanics and 47% of other minorities.

About half of voters between the ages of 30 and 64 prefer Hinson, while Turek leads by a 13-point margin among voters under 30, and also leads by eight points among those 65 and older. Older voters are more likely to be Very Excited about voting in the midterms.

Ninety percent (90%) of Iowa voters who identify as Very Conservative support Hinson, while 88% of Very Liberal voters favor Turek, who also leads by a 20-point margin among moderate voters.

Breaking down the Iowa electorate by income categories, Hinson leads among voters earning between $30,000 and $200,000 a year, while those with annual incomes over $200,000 prefer Turek by a 26-point margin, 63% to 37%.

Among those who voted for Trump in the 2024 presidential election, 80% would vote for Hinson, while 91% of Kamala Harris voters support Turek.

On the eve of the midterm elections, the Democratic Party leads Republicans by six points in the battle to control the House of Representatives. 

Michigan’s Democratic Attorney General Jocelyn Benson leads by double digits over Republican Rep. John James in the race to be the state’s next governor. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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