Alaska Senate: Peltola 44%, Sullivan 42%

Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has taken a narrow lead over Alaska’s incumbent Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan in a contest where ranked-choice voting will determine the winner with four names on the November ballot.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 44% of Likely Alaska voters would vote for Peltola, while 42% would vote for Sullivan, who formerly was the state’s sole at-large representative in the U.S. House. Four percent (4%) would vote for Republican “perennial candidate” Gerald Heikes, while three percent (3%) would vote for Republican Daniel J. Sullivan, whose presence on the ballot has brought accusations of Democrat skullduggery, and six percent (6%) are undecided. In September, the Alaska Senate race was tied, with 39% each for Peltola and Sullivan. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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Alaska has adopted ranked-choice voting, which allows a second choice for state elections, which are counted if the voter’s first choice candidate does not get enough votes. Forty-eight percent (48%) say the incumbent Sullivan is their second choice, while 47% would pick Peltola second.

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The survey of 775 Alaska Likely Voters was conducted on October 12-15, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ninety-three percent (93%) of Democrats would vote for Peltola, as would nine percent (9%) of Republicans and 43% of independent voters. Sullivan is supported by 75% of Republican voters as well as three percent (3%) of Democrats and 41% of independents.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of all Alaska Likely Voters say they’re excited about voting in the midterm elections, including 48% who are Very Excited. Slightly more Democrats (50%) than Republicans (48%) say they’re Very Excited about voting in this fall’s midterms.

The “gender gap” is not very significant in the Alaska Senate race, with women voters favoring Peltola by four points, 47% to 43%, compared to a 42% to 41% margin for Peltola among men.

Peltola leads by a 33-point margin, 57% to 24%, among Alaska voters under 30, while Suliivan leads by double digits among those ages 40 to 64. Older voters are significantly more likely than those under 40 to say they are Very Excited about voting in the midterm elections.

Peltola is favored by 41% of whites, 50% of Native Alaskans, 83% of black voters, 61% of Hispanics and 39% of other minorities. Sullivan is supported by 46% of whites, 36% of Native Alaskans, 12% of black voters, 30% of Hispanics and 40% of other minorities.

Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Very Liberal voters prefer Peltola, while 75% of Very Conservative voters favor Sullivan. Among moderate voters in Alaska, Peltola leads 51% to 33%.

Among those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, 94% would vote for Peltola, while 79% of Donald Trump voters would vote for Sullivan.

Incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted has moved ahead of former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in the special election for a U.S. Senate seat in Ohio. 

The Democratic Party’s lead over Republicans has narrowed to four points in the battle to control the House of Representatives.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as Platinum Members.

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