Election 2012 Archive

Montana: Romney, Santorum Still Lead Obama

Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum continue to lead President Obama in hypothetical Election 2012 matchups in Montana, a state last won by a Democratic presidential candidate 20 years ago.

Romney receives 49% support from Likely Voters in the Treasure State to Obama’s 40%. A new Rasmussen Reports statewide survey finds that nine percent (9%) prefer some other candidate, while two percent (2%) are not sure.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Santorum leads the president 48% to 41% among Montana voters. Eight percent (8%) favor another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Montana was conducted on April 2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Mexico Senate: Heinrich (D) 46%, Wilson (R) 42%

The U.S. Senate race in New Mexico remains tight between former Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson and two potential Democratic opponents.

A statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters finds Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich picking up 46% of the vote against Wilson who draws 42% support. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This New Mexico survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on April 3, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Montana Senate: Rehberg (R) 47%, Tester (D) 44%

Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg still maintains a very narrow advantage over Democratic incumbent Jon Tester in Montana’s closely contested U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Montana Voters shows Rehberg with 47% support to Tester’s 44%. Six percent (6%) like some other candidate in the race, and three percent are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Montana survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on April 2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama Still Leads Romney, Santorum in Core Four States (FL, NC, OH, VA)

President Obama remains slightly ahead of the Republican front-runners in combined polling of the key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. New Rasmussen Reports telephone surveying finds that Obama picks up 47% of the vote to Romney’s 44%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. That's little changed from a week ago when Obama led Romney 47% to 42%. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 24-29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Wisconsin: Obama Grows Lead Over GOP Hopefuls

President Obama is now above the 50% mark in hypothetical Election 2012 matchups with Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in Wisconsin. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Badger State finds Obama earning 52% support to Romney’s 41%.  Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, while two percent (2%) are not sure.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Wisconsin survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted March 27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Wisconsin Senate: Thompson (R) 48%, Baldwin (D) 44%

The race for Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate seat between top Republican contender Tommy Thompson and Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin has grown tighter over the last month. Baldwin now leads two other Republican hopefuls in the race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Wisconsin shows former Governor Thompson with 48% support to Baldwin’s 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and another four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on March 27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio: Obama Takes Bigger Lead Over Romney, Santorum

President Obama has extended his lead over his top GOP challengers in the key battleground state of Ohio. 

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Ohio finds Obama leads Mitt Romney 48% to 40%. Eight percent (8%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

If Santorum is his Republican opponent, the president posts a 47% to 41% lead. Seven percent (7%) favor another candidate in the race, while five percent (5%) are undecided.

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This Ohio survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 26, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio Senate: Brown (D) 43%, Mandel (R) 43%

Republican Josh Mandel, in the first Rasmussen Reports survey since his decisive primary victory, is now running neck-and-neck with Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. 

The latest telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Buckeye State finds Brown and Mandel each with 43% support. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and another 11% are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Ohio survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 26, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Virginia: Obama Widens Lead Over Romney, Santorum

President Obama now clears the 50% mark in support against his top two potential Republican challengers in the battleground state of Virginia.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters finds the president leading former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney by nine points - 51% to 42%. It was a six-point race a month ago – Obama 49%, Romney 43%. Four percent (4%) now prefer another candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) more are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on March 20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Virginia Senate: Allen (R) 46%, Kaine (D) 44%

The U.S. Senate race in Virginia remains a toss-up, with Republican George Allen ahead of Democrat Tim Kaine by just two points.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey finds Allen drawing 46% of the vote to Kaine’s 44%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on March 20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Nevada: Obama Leads Romney, Santorum

President Obama is ahead of Rick Santorum by 16 points and leads Mitt Romney by six points in hypothetical Election 2012 matchups in Nevada.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama earning 50% of the vote to Romney’s 44%.  Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while two percent (2%) are not sure.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Nevada survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 19, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Nevada Senate: Heller (R) 47%, Berkley (D) 40%

Incumbent Republican Dean Heller holds a seven-point lead over his likeliest Democratic challenger, Congresswoman Shelley Berkley, in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the U.S. Senate race in Nevada.

A new telephone survey of Likely Voters in Nevada shows Heller with 47% support to Berkley’s 40%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and 11% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Nevada survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 19, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama Trails Santorum, Leads Romney in Core Four States (FL, NC, OH, VA)

President Obama now trails former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum by four points in a hypothetical 2012 matchup in combined polling of key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. The president continues to hold a modest lead in those states.

Santorum leads the president 48% to 44% in the so-called Core Four states. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate in this matchup, and two percent (2%) are undecided. This marks a shift from last week, when the president was slightly ahead of Santorum.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Obama remains ahead of Romney 46% to 42%, showing no change from last week. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate in this matchup, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 10-15, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Missouri Senate: McCaskill Behind Top Republican Challengers

Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill now trails all four of the leading GOP hopefuls in Missouri’s U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Missouri shows the Democratic incumbent earning between 41% and 43% of the vote when matched against four potential GOP opponents. She trails the Republican challengers by margins ranging from four to ten percentage points.

This Missouri survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 14-15, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Arizona 2012: Obama Trails Romney, Ties Santorum

President Obama lost to Senator John McCain in the Republican’s home state of Arizona 54% to 45% in 2008, and the president now trails GOP front-runner Mitt Romney by double-digits in a hypothetical 2012 matchup.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Arizona Voters shows the former Massachusetts governor with 51% support against Obama’s 40%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Arizona survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Florida 2012: Obama Now Edges Romney and Santorum

President Obama now runs just barely ahead of both Republican front-runners in the key electoral state of Florida.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters finds Obama leading former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 46% to 43%. Seven percent (7%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In a face-off with former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, Obama posts a 45% to 43% lead. Eight percent (8%) favor someone else in the race, while four percent (4%) again remain undecided.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on March 13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Arizona Senate: Top GOP Candidates Lead Democratic Challengers

Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the race to fill Jon Kyl’s U.S. Senate seat in Arizona shows both leading Republican hopefuls ahead of their top Democratic opponents.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Grand Canyon State finds Republican Congressman Jeff Flake earning 47% support to former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona’s 34%.  Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while 16% are not sure.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

If attorney and party activist Don Bivens is the Democratic nominee, Flake still picks up 47%, while Bivens earns 30% of the vote. Given this matchup, three percent (3%) favor another candidate in the race, and another 20% are undecided. 

Businessman Wil Cardon, Flake’s top GOP primary challenger, leads Bivens by a 42% to 30% margin.  Four percent (4%) support some other candidate, while 24% are not sure. 

However, Cardon runs nearly even when Carmona is his Democratic challenger, leading 39% to 38%.  In that matchup, three percent (3%) like a different candidate, and 20% more are undecided.

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This Arizona survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Florida Senate: Mack (R) 43%, Nelson (D) 36%

Republican Congressman Connie Mack now posts a seven-point lead over Democratic Senator Bill Nelson in Florida’s U.S. Senate race, and the incumbent remains just ahead of his other two potential GOP rivals.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Florida shows Mack with 43% support to Nelson’s 36%. Five percent (5%) like another candidate in the race, and a sizable 16% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Florida survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama Leads Romney, Santorum in Core Four States (FL, NC, OH, VA)

President Obama now holds modest leads over Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in combined polling of key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. The numbers mark a shift from late February when Obama was tied with both candidates in the four states. 

Obama is now ahead of the former Massachusetts governor 46% to 42%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate in this matchup, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 3-8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

National GOP: Romney 39%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 17%, Paul 10%

Mitt Romney still holds a double-digit lead over Rick Santorum among Republicans nationwide, although the gap between the two is slightly narrower following Super Tuesday’s mixed signals. But more GOP voters than ever now expect Romney to be the party’s nominee.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters shows Romney ahead of Santorum by 12 points – 39% to 27%. That’s a little tighter than it was a week ago when Romney led the former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania by 16 – 40% to 24%. It was Romney's biggest lead and the highest level of support earned by any GOP candidate in regular surveying of the race. But two weeks before that, Santorum was up by 12 points – 39% to 27%.

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.