Pt only New York Senate: Gillibrand Still Running Strong Against GOP Opponents

Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand continues to hold double-digit leads over three potential Republican opponents in her reelection bid for U.S. Senate in New York.

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Where Does Christie Stand With GOP Voters?

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, once considered a formidable contender for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, tracks in the lower tier of GOP hopefuls now that he has made his candidacy official.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 24% of Likely Republican Voters think Christie is likely to end up being the GOP presidential nominee next year. That includes only six percent (6%) who say it is Very Likely. Sixty-three percent (63%) say Christie is unlikely to be the nominee, including 25% who feel it is Not At All Likely. Thirteen percent (13%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on June 30 – July 1, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Clinton's Weakness in Important States By Michael Barone

Hillary Clinton has relaunched her campaign on Roosevelt Island with a 4,687-word speech. But it's not clear whether she and her husband, Bill Clinton, can win four presidential elections as Franklin D. Roosevelt did.

Negative news for Clinton's prospects comes in the latest Quinnipiac polls in the key mega-states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. In each of them, she leads or ties Republican opponents, though in many cases not by statistically significant margins. But she also is running under 50 percent of the vote in every pairing, averaging 47 percent against six different Republicans in Florida, 44 percent against seven Republicans in Ohio and 46 percent against four Republicans in Pennsylvania. That's a danger zone for a candidate with universal recognition.

Hillary Clinton vs. Michael Bloomberg

Some pundits have suggested that liberal darling Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City, should jump into the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, but is he really a threat to frontrunner Hillary Clinton? (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a  free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 952 Likely Voters was conducted on June 4 and 7, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

A Tale of Two Pollsters

The New York Times reports in their latest poll released late yesterday that Americans don’t care about Hillary Clinton’s e-mail and Clinton Foundation problems. They conclude that the former secretary of State and putative Democratic presidential nominee in 2016 has weathered the storm so far.

For Democrats, it’s always advantageous when pollsters turn to Americans in general or even registered voters rather than Likely Voters like those we routinely survey here at Rasmussen Reports. It’s true that Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they intend to vote which helps explain why Democrats are always championing schemes like same-day voter registration, mail-in voting and the like to get their voters to the polls. But, historically, we’ve also found that polling likely voters gets us closer to the actual end result than surveying Americans as a whole.

Most U.S. 21st Century Population Growth Came in Just 27 Metro Areas By Michael Barone

It's springtime, and the Census Bureau has released its population estimates for counties and metropolitan areas as of July 1, 2014. Initial analysis has focused on year-to-year movements or changes since the 2010 Census -- subjects worthy of attention.

But it's also interesting to take a longer look, to see where population has been booming over the 14 years since 2000, one-seventh of the 21st century. The headline here is that growth has been concentrated in relatively few large metropolitan areas.

 

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