Monday, October 13, 2008

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It’s all tied in North Carolina.

The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 48% of Tar Heel voters prefer Barack Obama while an identical number favor John McCain. One percent (1%) say they’ll vote for Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.

Obama had held a one-point edge in polling conducted last week and a three-point edge two weeks ago.

McCain was ahead in North Carolina before the problems on Wall Street became visible to Americans everywhere. Not surprisingly, the numbers in North Carolina reflect national trends. McCain was slightly ahead before Lehman Brothers collapsed in mid-September and fell behind shortly thereafter. For the past two-and-a-half weeks, Obama has maintained a modest but steady lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and in the Electoral College.

Nationally, Obama is now performing eight or nine points better than John Kerry. In North Carolina, the current poll finds Obama doing 12 points better than Kerry did four years ago.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

North Carolina was last carried by a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976, but the fact that McCain was campaigning there today is indicative of GOP worries that the state is at risk.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of North Carolina voters say they trust McCain more than Obama while 43% have the opposite view.

However, 46% say they would be extremely or very comfortable with Obama as President. Just 43% say the same about McCain.

McCain leads 61% to 37% among Evangelical Christians. He also leads by eight percentage points among other Protestant voters while Catholics are evenly divided. Obama leads 67% to 29% among all other voters statewide. The Democrat leads by seven among women but trails by 11 among men (see full demographic crosstabs).

Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a % chance of winning North Carolina’s Electoral College votes this fall. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join, so add your voice to the collective wisdom.
The Tar Heel state is rated a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

During Election 2004, President Bush won 56% of the North Carolina vote. Today, just 31% say he is doing a good or an excellent job. Fifty percent (50%) rate the president’s job performance as poor.

New polling on the presidential race is also being released today from Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Missouri. See an overview of all five state polls and the latest Electoral College projections. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).

Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.