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Texas Senate: Cornyn’s Lead Slips to Seven

Incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn now leads challenger Rick Noriega just 50% to 43% in Texas, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.

Cornyn had an 11-point lead over Noriega in August. He had been out front by double digits in every poll conducted since May, when he had just a four-point lead over the challenger. Cornyn is currently seeking his second term in the Senate.

This month, Cornyn has a 50% to 33% lead among unaffiliated voters in Texas. He leads 51% to 43% among men and 49% to 43% among women (see crosstabs).

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Cornyn is viewed favorably by 57% and unfavorably by 30%. Noriega, a state legislator, is viewed favorably by 46% and unfavorably by 36%. Seventeen percent (17%) of voters still have no opinion of the Democratic challenger.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Cornyn an % chance of keeping his job in November. This figure is updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Less than a month after Hurricane Ike hit the state, voters in Texas give positive reviews to both the state and federal governments’ responses to the emergency. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of voters rate the national response good or excellent, while just seven percent (7%) say the federal government did a poor job handling the situation. Most voters (85%) rate the state’s response as good or excellent, while just two percent (2%) give it poor marks.

Currently, contractors are fighting a state law that bars the ability of people to rebuild in certain areas destroyed by Hurricane Ike. Voters are evenly divided over whether this should be allowed. While 42% of voters say people should be allowed to rebuild in those areas, 39% disagree. One-in-five voters (20%) is not sure.

The survey also found that voters are divided on the issue of state aid in the current economic crisis. Thirty-seven percent (37%) believe Texas should use a portion of its budget surplus to aid homeowners affected by the crisis, while slightly more (43%) disagree. Again, one-in-five voters is undecided.

Most Texas voters believe veterans do not receive enough government aid. While just 16% say state and federal programs are doing enough to support veterans, 63% disagree.

Texas Governor Rick Perry earns good or excellent job approval ratings from 40% of voters, while 23% give him a poor rating.

John McCain continues to hold a solid lead over Barack Obama in the Lone Star State.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

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See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Texas Safe Republican

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

Ras Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Cornyn (R)

55%

51%

55%

Noriega (D)

40%

40%

43%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 29, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Texas Trends: Cornyn vs. Noriega

Date

Cornyn

Noriega

10/21/2008

55%

40%

09/29/2008

50%

43%

08/21/2008

48%

37%

07/30/2008

47%

37%

06/25/2008

48%

35%

06/02/2008

52%

35%

05/01/2008

47%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Texas

 

Cornyn

Noriega

Very Favorable

26%

18%

Somewhat Favorable

33%

25%

Somewhat Unfavorable

23%

24%

Very Unfavorable

9%

18%

Not Sure

9%

16%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.