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Texas Senate: Cornyn 47% Noriega 43%

It’s time to add United States Senator John Cornyn to the list of potentially vulnerable Republican incumbents in Election 2008. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state find Cornyn leading Democratic state legislator Rick Noriega by just four percentage points, 47% to 43%.

Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable. That is especially true when a little known challenger is so competitive in an early general election match-up. The race for President in Texas is also fairly competitive early in Election 2008.

Noreiga leads among voters earning less than $40,000 a year. Cornyn leads among those with higher incomes. Cornyn leads among Evangelical Christian voters and other Protestants. Noreiga leads among those with a different faith background. Both candidates do well within their own party and are fairly evenly matched among unaffiliated voters.

Democrats are likely to expand their majority in the Senate this year by picking up several Senate seats currently held by the GOP. Early polling indicates that many states offer potential Democratic gains including Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, and Alaska.

Cornyn is viewed favorably by 50% of the state’s likely voters, unfavorably by 37%.

Noreiga earns positive reviews from 45% and negative assessments from 39%.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters say the state’s Republican Governor, Rick Perry, is doing a good or excellent job. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say he is doing a poor job.

President George W. Bush doesn’t do as well. Just 39% of voters in his adopted home state say that the President has done a good or an excellent job. Forty-five percent (45%) rate his performance as poor.

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2002 Results

Cornyn (R)




Noriega (D)




This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 1, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

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Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Texas




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About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.