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North Carolina Senate: Hagan 48% Dole 45%

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in North Carolina finds Democratic challenger Kay Hagan with 48% of the vote and the incumbent United States Senator Elizabeth Dole three points behind with 45%.

That’s a slight improvement for Dole who trailed by six just a few days ago, but it’s never comfortable for an incumbent to be trailing this late in the campaign season. Adding to Dole’s problems is the fact that John McCain finds himself in a very tight race with Barack Obama for North Carolina’s Electoral College votes. That means Dole can’t count on the lift from the top of the ticket usually enjoyed by the state’s GOP candidates.

Hagan leads among those who earn less than $40,000 a year while Dole leads among higher income voters. Dole also leads among regular churchgoers while Hagan leads among those who rarely attend services (full demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Dole was elected to the Senate in 2002 to become the first female Senator in North Carolina's history. She currently serves on three Senate committees, including the Committee on Armed Services. Attorney Hagan is currently serving her fifth term in the state's Senate.

Dole is viewed favorably by 52% of the voters in her state, Hagan by 51%.

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Rasmussen Markets data gives Dole a % chance of winning re-election in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join, so add your voice to the collective wisdom.

Dole's numbers in North Carolina are bad news for a party that had seemed to be making progress in recent week. Many Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including seats in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota and Virginia.

The only Democratic incumbent polling below 50% is New Jersey's Frank Lautenberg.

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North Carolina Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Dole (R)

46%

45%

54%

Hagan (D)

52%

50%

45%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on September 23, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


North Carolina Trends: Dole vs. Hagan

Date

Dole

Hagan

10/29/2008

46%

52%

10/08/2008

44%

49%

09/23/2008

45%

48%

09/18/2008

45%

51%

07/17/2008

53%

41%

06/10/2008

53%

39%

05/08/2008

47%

48%

04/10/2008

52%

39%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in North Carolina

 

Dole

Hagan

Very Favorable

23%

27%

Somewhat Favorable

23%

26%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

19%

Very Unfavorable

31%

23%

Not Sure

3%

5%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.