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New Mexico Senate: Udall’s Lead Continues to Fall

New Mexico’s race for the U.S. Senate is the closest it’s ever been this month. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Democrat Tom Udall leading Republican Steve Pearce 51% to 44%.

Last month, Pearce pulled within 10 percentage points of his opponent, whom he trailed by double-digits in each survey since April. Udall and Pearce are seeking to replace retiring Senator Pete Domenici, a Republican who has been in the Senate since 1973. Both candidates chose to leave the U.S. House of Representatives to compete for the open seat.

A big change in the race this month came from unaffiliated voters. Pearce now leads 50% to 38% among those voters. Last month, Udall had a 48% to 39% lead. While Udall leads 54% to 40% among women in New Mexico, Pearce has a statistically insignificant 48% to 47% lead among men.

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Favorability ratings for Udall have slipped only slightly over the past month. The Democrat is viewed favorably by 57%, down from 59% in August, and unfavorably by 35%, up from 34%. The Republican’s numbers also have slipped this month. Pearce’s ratings are 45% favorable, down from 53% last month, and 46% unfavorable, up from 39% a month ago.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Udall a % chance of winning the New Mexico Senate race. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Rasmussen Reports released five swing state polls on the Presidential race Monday night for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Yesterday, the latest numbers for the Montana presidential and Senate races were released. Additional state poll results will be released each Monday at 6:00 p.m. Eastern and Tuesday-Friday at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

Governor Bill Richardson earns good or excellent ratings from 45% of voters in New Mexico, while 29% say he is doing a poor job. Those ratings have slipped slightly since last month.

In New Mexico’s presidential race, John McCain has pulled ahead of Barack Obama in the first poll since the candidates’ conventions.

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New Mexico Safe Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Pearce (R)

41%

40%

65%

Udall (D)

56%

56%

35%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 8, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


New Mexico Trends: Udall vs. Pearce

Date

Udall

Pearce

10/28/2008

56%

41%

10/13/2008

57%

37%

10/01/2008

55%

41%

09/08/2008

51%

44%

08/20/2008

51%

41%

07/24/2008

59%

34%

06/18/2008

58%

30%

05/14/2008

53%

37%

04/08/2008

54%

40%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in New Mexico

 

Pearce

Udall

Very Favorable

27%

38%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

20%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

16%

Very Unfavorable

27%

24%

Not Sure

4%

3%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.