Republican Senator John Sununu has gained some ground, but still trails former Governor Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire’s race for the United States Senate. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Shaheen leading 50% to 45%. When “leaners” are included, the Democrat is ahead 51% to 45%.
Last month, the incumbent trailed 53% to 39% in the Granite State. Prior to opening that fourteen-point lead, Shaheen has led the incumbent by seven or eight percentage points in each of the previous four monthly polls. Sununu has served just one term in Senate.
Among voters not affiliated with either political party— Shaheen leads 53% to 40%. Last month, she led by twenty-eight among the unaffiliateds.
Sununu’s favorability ratings have also improved this month. The incumbent is viewed favorably by 52% of voters, up from 48% last month. Shaheen is viewed favorably by 55%, down from 59% last month.
Sometimes individual polls can overstate the volatility of a race, especially when the margin of sampling error is +/- four percentage points. An average of the last three Senate polls in New Hampshire shows Shaheen leading by nine, 51% to 42%.
Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered vulnerable. Sununu has not polled over 50% since tracking began and is in a worse position than other Republicans up for re-election. However, New Hampshire is far from the only Republican seat at risk in Election 2008. At least eight other Republican seats are potentially in play this fall, including Alaska,Oregon,New Mexico,Colorado,Mississippi,Kansas,Virginia and Kentucky. So far, just two Democratic incumbents have polled below 50%--Mary Landrieu in Louisiana and Frank Lautenberg in New Jersey.
In the presidential race in New Hampshire, Barack Obama has a modest lead over John McCain.
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This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 23, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
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New Hampshire Trends: Sununu vs. Shaheen |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Date |
Sununu |
Shaheen |
|
10/30/2008 |
44% |
52% |
|
46% |
52% |
|
|
45% |
50% |
|
|
52% |
45% |
|
|
40% |
51% |
|
|
45% |
50% |
|
|
39% |
53% |
|
|
43% |
50% |
|
|
43% |
51% |
|
|
41% |
49% |
|
|
41% |
49% |
|
|
43% |
48% |
|
|
Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in New Hampshire |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Sununu |
Shaheen |
|
|
Very Favorable |
27% |
24% |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
24% |
31% |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
26% |
15% |
|
Very Unfavorable |
20% |
28% |
|
Not Sure |
2% |
2% |
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
