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New Hampshire Senate: Shaheen Up by Five

Republican Senator John Sununu has gained some ground, but still trails former Governor Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire’s race for the United States Senate. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Shaheen leading 50% to 45%. When “leaners” are included, the Democrat is ahead 51% to 45%.

Last month, the incumbent trailed 53% to 39% in the Granite State. Prior to opening that fourteen-point lead, Shaheen has led the incumbent by seven or eight percentage points in each of the previous four monthly polls. Sununu has served just one term in Senate.

Among voters not affiliated with either political party— Shaheen leads 53% to 40%. Last month, she led by twenty-eight among the unaffiliateds.

Sununu’s favorability ratings have also improved this month. The incumbent is viewed favorably by 52% of voters, up from 48% last month. Shaheen is viewed favorably by 55%, down from 59% last month.

Sometimes individual polls can overstate the volatility of a race, especially when the margin of sampling error is +/- four percentage points. An average of the last three Senate polls in New Hampshire shows Shaheen leading by nine, 51% to 42%.

Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered vulnerable. Sununu has not polled over 50% since tracking began and is in a worse position than other Republicans up for re-election. However, New Hampshire is far from the only Republican seat at risk in Election 2008. At least eight other Republican seats are potentially in play this fall, including Alaska, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Kansas, Virginia and Kentucky. So far, just two Democratic incumbents have polled below 50%--Mary Landrieu in Louisiana and Frank Lautenberg in New Jersey.

Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Shaheen has a % chance of winning Colorado’s Senate race in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom.

In the presidential race in New Hampshire, Barack Obama has a modest lead over John McCain.

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New Hampshire Leans Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Sununu (R)

44%

44%

51%

Shaheen (D)

51%

51%

47%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 23, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


New Hampshire Trends: Sununu vs. Shaheen

Date

Sununu

Shaheen

10/30/2008

44%

52%

10/23/2008

46%

52%

10/01/2008

45%

50%

09/23/2008

52%

45%

08/19/2008

40%

51%

07/23/2008

45%

50%

06/18/2008

39%

53%

05/20/2008

43%

50%

04/30/2008

43%

51%

03/16/2008

41%

49%

02/13/2008

41%

49%

09/18/2007

43%

48%

Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in New Hampshire

 

Sununu

Shaheen

Very Favorable

27%

24%

Somewhat Favorable

24%

31%

Somewhat Unfavorable

26%

15%

Very Unfavorable

20%

28%

Not Sure

2%

2%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.