The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of New Hampshire voters shows hardly any change in the state’s U.S. Senate race. Jeanne Shaheen (D) now leads incumbent Senator John Sununu (R) 50% to 43%. A month ago, Shaheen led 51% to 43%. The race is remarkably stable. Prior to the current poll showing a seven-point Shaheen lead, the challenger had enjoyed an eight-point lead in three consecutive monthly polls.
Any incumbent who is polling below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable. Sununu, facing a serious challenge from a former Governor of the state, is more vulnerable than most. This is the fifth Rasmussen Reports poll of the race and Sununu has never topped the 43% level of support. In each of the last two surveys, the challenger has hit the 50% mark.
Republican incumbents in Maine and Kansas are a bit better off than many of their colleagues. Both Susan Collins and Pat Roberts are modestly over the 50% level of support in their re-election bids. In Nebraska, the GOP is currently favored to hang on to the seat being vacated by Chuck Hagel. Rasmussen Reports will be polling the Mississippi Senate races next week. A commentary by Dick Morris looks at the coming GOP Senate Massacre which he says could be worse than even the worst previous years for Republicans.
In New Hampshire, the Senate candidates are essentially even among men but Shaheen has a seventeen point advantage among women. Shaheen leads among those who make less than $75,000 annually while Sununu leads only among upper-income voters. Both candidate’s earn the vote from 81% of their own party while Shaheen has a fourteen-point lead among unaffiliated voters.
Sununu is viewed favorably by 49% of New Hampshire voters and unfavorably by 47%. Shaheen earns positive reviews 58% and negative feedback from 40%.
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This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 21, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
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New Hampshire Trends: Sununu vs. Shaheen |
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|---|---|---|
|
Date |
Sununu |
Shaheen |
|
10/30/2008 |
44% |
52% |
|
46% |
52% |
|
|
45% |
50% |
|
|
52% |
45% |
|
|
40% |
51% |
|
|
45% |
50% |
|
|
39% |
53% |
|
|
43% |
50% |
|
|
43% |
51% |
|
|
41% |
49% |
|
|
41% |
49% |
|
|
43% |
48% |
|
|
Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in New Hampshire |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Sununu |
Shaheen |
|
|
Very Favorable |
27% |
24% |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
24% |
31% |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
26% |
15% |
|
Very Unfavorable |
20% |
28% |
|
Not Sure |
2% |
2% |
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
