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Election 2008: Montana Senate
Montana Senate: Incumbent Baucus in Safe Territory

In the first poll of Montana’s race for United States Senate, Incumbent Max Baucus (D) is way out in front. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the Senator leading challenger Robert Kelleher 64% to 31% (demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Baucus, who has served in the Senate since 1978, is currently the chairman of the Committee on Finance. In the 2002 election, Baucus defeated his opponent by a 63% to 32% margin. Kelleher is a perennial candidate who has run on several tickets, including the Green party ticket in the 2002 Senate election in Montana.

The incumbent earns support from 93% of Montana Democrats and 38% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Baucus leads by a 67% to 26% margin. The democrat appeals to 39% of conservative voters, 87% of moderate voters and 88% of liberal voters. The incumbent’s margins are identical among men and women, 64% to 31%.

Baucus is viewed favorably by 69% of voters in Montana and unfavorably by 26%. Kelleher is considerably less known to many voters. The Republican is viewed favorably by 36%, unfavorably by 47%, and 18% of voters have no opinion of him.

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Rasmussen Markets data shows that Baucus is currently given a % chance of keeping his job this November. This figure is updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Approval ratings for Governor Brian Schweitzer (D), who is currently favored to win his bid for re-election this November, remain relatively steady. Most voters (64%) give the governor good or excellent ratings, while just 13% say he is doing a poor job.

Rasmussen Reports released five swing state polls on the Presidential race last night for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Today (Tuesday) at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest Presidential race numbers from Montana will be released. Additional state poll results will be released each Monday at 6:00 p.m. Eastern and Tuesday-Friday at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

Montana Safe Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Kelleher (R)




Baucus (D)




This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 7, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.

Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Montana




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Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary





Toss-Ups & Leaners


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.