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Wicker-Musgrove Senate Race Tightens in Mississippi

The Mississippi special Senate race between incumbent Republican Roger Wicker and his Democratic challenger Ronnie Musgrove is once again a neck-and-neck race.

Wicker, who was appointed to the Senate last year when Trent Lott resigned, leads Musgrove 49% to 47% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Mississippi voters (see crosstabs).

The race was tight in May and June, but Wicker had begun pulling away over the summer. In August he led 47% to 42%.

Any incumbent who polls less than 50% is generally considered to be in political danger.

Mississippi is in the unusual position of having two U.S. Senate races this year due to Lott’s retirement. In December, Governor Haley Barbour named Wicker to Lott’s seat until a special election could be held. In the other Mississippi Senate race, longtime Republican incumbent Thad Cochran enjoys a sizable lead.

Wicker, a congressman for 12 years, is viewed favorably by 59% of the state’s voters, unfavorably by 36%. Musgrove, a former governor, has 51% favorables and 44% unfavorables.

Wicker has the support of 87% of Republicans and seven percent (7%) of Democrats. Musgrove is backed by 90% of Democrats and 10% of GOP voters. Unaffiliated voters give a 12-point edge to Wicker.

The Republican leads among men by 19 points, while his opponent has 12-point margin among women.With the first African-American presidential candidate of a major party at the top of the ticket, Musgrove has the support of 96% of black voters in Mississippi. Seventy-four percent (74%) of white voters support Wicker.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Wicker a % chance of reelection in November. This figure is updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Wicker’s is not the only Republican Senate seat at risk this fall. Other states in play include Virginia, Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado and Minnesota.

Fifty percent (50%) of Mississippi voters now give the governor good or excellent marks for job performance, down three points from late August. Twenty-two percent (22%) rate Barbour’s work as poor, an increase of one point over the last survey.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Mississippi Leans Republican

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2006 Results

Wicker (R)

54%

50%

64%

Musgrove (D)

43%

44%

35%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 30, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Mississippi Trends: Wicker vs. Musgrove

Date

Wicker

Musgrove

10/27/2008

54%

43%

9/30/2008

49%

47%

8/21/2008

47%

42%

7/28/2008

48%

42%

6/24/2008

48%

47%

5/27/2008

46%

47%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Mississippi

 

Wicker

Musgrove

Very Favorable

29%

25%

Somewhat Favorable

30%

22%

Somewhat Unfavorable

17%

18%

Very Unfavorable

19%

32%

Not Sure

4%

4%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.