Tuesday, October 28, 2008

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The Mississippi special Senate race between incumbent Republican Roger Wicker and his Democratic challenger Ronnie Musgrove is once again a neck-and-neck race.

Wicker, who was appointed to the Senate last year when Trent Lott resigned, leads Musgrove 49% to 47% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Mississippi voters (see crosstabs).

The race was tight in May and June, but Wicker had begun pulling away over the summer. In August he led 47% to 42%.

Any incumbent who polls less than 50% is generally considered to be in political danger.

Mississippi is in the unusual position of having two U.S. Senate races this year due to Lott’s retirement. In December, Governor Haley Barbour named Wicker to Lott’s seat until a special election could be held. In the other Mississippi Senate race, longtime Republican incumbent Thad Cochran enjoys a sizable lead.

Wicker, a congressman for 12 years, is viewed favorably by 59% of the state’s voters, unfavorably by 36%. Musgrove, a former governor, has 51% favorables and 44% unfavorables.

Wicker has the support of 87% of Republicans and seven percent (7%) of Democrats. Musgrove is backed by 90% of Democrats and 10% of GOP voters. Unaffiliated voters give a 12-point edge to Wicker.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Wicker a % chance of reelection in November. This figure is updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Fifty percent (50%) of Mississippi voters now give the governor good or excellent marks for job performance, down three points from late August. Twenty-two percent (22%) rate Barbour’s work as poor, an increase of one point over the last survey.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.