Thursday, June 26, 2008

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Mississippi’s appointed U.S. Senator Roger Wicker (R) finds himself in a very tight election battle to win the job on his own. University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato has noted that this will be a “real political battle” which is “a rarity in a state that’s usually red as red can be.”

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race finds a pure toss-up--former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) attracts 47% of the vote while Wicker earns 46%.

Musgove leads by ten points among women but trails by eight among men. The Democratic challenger leads among voters under 50 while the GOP incumbent leads among those who have passed the half-century mark. Musgove is supported by 81% of Democrats, Wicker by 76% of Republicans, and Wicker holds a very modest 44% to 40% lead among the state’s unaffiliated voters.

Both men are viewed favorably by 49% of the state’s voters. Wicker is viewed unfavorably by 32% and Musgrove by 42%.

Twenty-two percent (22%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Musgrove. Just 10% hold such a negative view of Wicker.

Mississippi is in the unusual position of having two U.S. Senate races this year due to the retirement of Trent Lott. In December, Wicker was appointed to replace Lott by Governor Haley Barbour. Barbour also set November as the date for an election to replace Lott. Democrats had hoped to have a special election much sooner to avoid giving Wicker eleven months of incumbency. However, the State Supreme Court ruled that the November date would stand.

Barbour may be a campaign asset to the man he appointed. Fifty-three percent (53%) of the state’s voters say he is doing a good or an excellent job as Governor. Just 17% say he is doing a poor job.

In the other Mississippi Senate race, Thad Cochran enjoys a sizable lead and should cruise to re-election.

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