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Obama Opens Double Digit Lead in Wisconsin

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Wisconsin shows Barack Obama earning 50% of the vote while John McCain attracts support from 39%. This is a big improvement for Obama who held a statistically insignificant two point lead in the state a month ago. Last month’s poll was taken just before Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race. When “leaners” are included in the current totals, it’s Obama 52% and McCain 42%.

Wisconsin neighbors Obama’s home state of Illinois which may be helping the Democrat in this state that has been agonizingly close in recent Presidential elections. Three other states along the nation’s northern border and just west of Wisconsin are also showing surprising Democratic strength early in Election 2008. Obama leads big in Minnesota, leads narrowly in Montana, and the two candidates are tied in North Dakota.

Of those four states, Wisconsin and Minnesota have each voted for Democrats in recent elections, but by narrower margins than current polling suggests. Montana and North Dakota are traditionally Republican states, at least at the Presidential level. Nationally, Obama has a very modest lead over McCain in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

In Wisconsin, Obama attracts support from 86% of Democrats and has a twelve point advantage among unaffiliated voters. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Republicans support McCain ( see recent demographic highlights from national polling). Obama leads by twenty-three points among women while McCain has a slight edge among male voters. Obama attracts a majority of the vote in all age groups under 65. McCain holds a six-point edge among senior citizens.

Overall, Obama is viewed favorably by 61% of Wisconsin voters. That’s a five point improvement compared to a month ago. McCain is viewed favorably by 57%, down three points.

Twenty-eight percent (28%) of Wisconsin voters say McCain is too old to be President while 40% say Obama is too inexperienced. These perceptions are tracked regularly on a national basis and updated continuously along with other key stats at Obama-McCain By the Numbers.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning the Badger State’s ten Electoral College Votes this fall. John Kerry won the state for the Democrats in 2004 by 10,000 votes out of three million cast. Four years earlier, Al Gore won the state by only 5,000 votes. With release of this poll, Wisconsin shifts from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article. Larry Sabato sees Wisconsin as a Toss-Up in his most recent assessment of the race.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Wisconsin voters say getting troops home from Iraq is more important than winning the War. Thirty-five percent (35%) disagree and say victory is more important.

Sixty-one percent (61%) support offshore oil drilling and 52% believe it will lead to lower prices. These figures are very close to the national average.

Thirty-four percent (34%) say President Bush is doing a good or excellent job. That’s up three points from a month ago. Fifty-one percent (51%) say he is doing a poor job.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) say Democratic Governor Jim Doyle is doing a good or an excellent job, unchanged from a month ago. Just 29% say he is doing a poor job.

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Wisconsin Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR P oll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

44%

45%

41%

Obama (D)

51%

51%

51%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 8, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Wisconsin Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/23/2008

44%

51%

10/06/2008

44%

54%

09/15/2008

46%

48%

08/05/2008

43%

47%

07/08/2008

39%

50%

06/05/2008

43%

45%

05/05/2008

47%

43%

03/26/2008

48%

46%

02/21/2008

43%

44%


Favorable Ratings For Presidential Candidates in Wisconsin

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

28%

41%

Somewhat Favorable

23%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

21%

12%

Very Unfavorable

27%

30%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.