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Election 2008: Wisconsin Presidential Election
Wisconsin: Obama By Seven

For the past six months of polling in Wisconsin, one thing has remained constant: Barack Obama has been ahead of John McCain each and every time.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama leading by seven percentage points—51% to 44%. Not surprisingly, Obama also has a seven-point advantage on the question of which candidate is trusted more on the economy. Economic issues are the most important of Election 2008, both in Wisconsin and throughout the nation.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of the state’s voters agree with Obama’s response to "Joe the Plumber." Forty percent (40%) disagree with Obama's comment that spreading the wealth around is good for everyone.

Overall, Obama is now viewed favorably by 57% of Wisconsin voters, McCain by 51%.

Obama leads by 13 points among women and by a single point among men (see full demographic crosstabs).

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Sixty-five percent (65%) say they expect Obama to win the state while 24% expect a McCain victory.

Since June, McCain’s support has remained very consistent, from a low of 39% to a high of 46%. This is the second straight poll with McCain precisely at 44%.

During that same time frame, Obama’s support in Wisconsin has ranged from 45% to 54%. The Democrat’s lead has been as low as two points and as high as 11.

Earlier in October, Obama enjoyed a 10-point lead.

No Republican presidential candidate has carried Wisconsin since 1984, but the last two elections were particularly close. In 2000, Al Gore won the state by only 5,000 votes, and four years later John Kerry carried Wisconsin by just 10,000 votes out of three million cast.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning Wisconsin’s 10 Electoral College votes in November. Wisconsin is rated "Likely Democratic" in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Wisconsin voters are Very Confident that their votes will be properly counted and the right candidate declared the winner. Another 33% are Somewhat Confident that will happen. Just 47% say elections are fair to voters.

Half (50%) are worried that people who aren’t eligible to vote will be allowed to cast a ballot. Thirty-four percent (34%) are more worried that legitimate voters will be denied the right to vote.

Seventy-three percent (73%) believe that voters should be required to show photo identification before voting.

Obama leads among voters under 65 while McCain has a slight advantage among senior citizens. Investors are evenly divided between the two candidates, but Obama leads by a two-to-one margin among non-investors. McCain leads by a wide margin among regular churchgoers but trails among those who rarely or never attend services (full demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members).

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

Nationally, Obama has held a steady lead for a month in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Take a moment to predict how many Electoral College votes Obama will win this year.

Recent statewide presidential polls also have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington and West Virginia. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

 

Wisconsin Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR P oll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

44%

45%

41%

Obama (D)

51%

51%

51%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 23, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Wisconsin Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/23/2008

44%

51%

10/06/2008

44%

54%

09/15/2008

46%

48%

08/05/2008

43%

47%

07/08/2008

39%

50%

06/05/2008

43%

45%

05/05/2008

47%

43%

03/26/2008

48%

46%

02/21/2008

43%

44%


Favorable Ratings For Presidential Candidates in Wisconsin

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

28%

41%

Somewhat Favorable

23%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

21%

12%

Very Unfavorable

27%

30%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.