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Virginia: McCain 49% Obama 47%

Former Governor Mark Warner was the Keynote Speaker at the Democratic National Convention, but the presidential race in Virginia is still as close as it was in August. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone in the state shows John McCain with 49% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 47% (crosstabs available for Premium Members).

That’s little changed from a month ago. The candidates have not been separated by more than three percentage points since March.

The Democrat is viewed favorably by 57% of voters in Virginia and unfavorably by 44%, representing an improvement from the last poll conducted before his convention. McCain’s ratings are 59% favorable, 40% unfavorable, which has remained relatively unchanged.

While no Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, it’s not terribly surprising that the race is close in 2008. Demographic changes in Northern Virginia along back-to-back popular Democratic Governor’s may give the Democratic prospects an additional boost.

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Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel will jointly release a series battleground state polls every Monday night at 6:00 p.m. Eastern. See overview of all polling released this week.

Rasmussen Reports will release other state polling on the Presidential race weeknights at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, follows the race on a national basis and is updated every morning at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

This month, McCain leads 50% to 39% among unaffiliated voters in Virginia. He also leads 58% to 37% among men, while Obama leads 55% to 42% among women. McCain leads 50% to 46% among voters who have a college degree, while the race is nearly tied in Obama’s favor, 48% to 47% among voters who do not have a college degree.

Voters’ opinions of the candidates’ running mates are nearly identical. Both Sarah Palin and Joe Biden are viewed favorably by 55% of voters in Virginia. While Biden is viewed unfavorably by 43%, Palin is viewed unfavorably by 42%. However, voters’ opinions of Palin are stronger.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives the GOP a % chance of carrying the state again this fall. Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Overall, 50% of voters trust McCain more than Obama. Forty-four percent (44%) say they trust the democrat more. McCain has the trust of 54% of unaffiliated voters in the state.

While 38% of voters say they would not be comfortable with Obama becoming president, 32% say that of McCain. However, 34% of voters say they would be extremely comfortable with Obama in office, while just 26% say that of McCain.

If faced with the toughest decision of their lives, most voters (50%) say they would ask McCain for advice over his opponent. Meanwhile, 44% say they would choose Obama.

Governor Tim Kaine earns good or excellent ratings from 52% of voters, while 20% say he is doing a poor job.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters in Virginia say President George W. Bush is doing a good or excellent job, while 50% say he is doing a poor job.

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This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on September 7, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Virginia Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

47%

51%

47%

51%

44%

54%

47%

50%

48%

50%

47%

50%

45%

50%

50%

48%

48%

48%

49%

47%

45%

46%

44%

44%

44%

45%

47%

44%

52%

41%

49%

44%

45%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Virginia

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

46%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

9%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

10%

Very Unfavorable

19%

33%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

160

260

118


Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.