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Texas: McCain Leads by Nine for Third Straight Month

For the third month in a row, John McCain is leading Barack Obama in Texas by nine points, 50% to 41%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

When “leaners” are included, the Republican is ahead 54% to 44%.

Nationally, in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, the race between McCain and Obama remains very close.

Texas has voted for the Republican candidate in every election for the past 28 years. At the time this poll was released, Texas was rated as a “Safely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

This month, McCain is backed by 82% of voters from his own party and 16% of Democrats in Texas. Obama’s support comes from 75% of Democrats and 14% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, McCain has a dominant 51% to 35% lead. McCain leads by a 50% to 41% margin among men and 51% to 41% among women.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are overwhelmingly favored to win Texas' 34 Electoral College votes this November. Current prices give the GOP a % chance of winning. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants (it costs nothing to join).

McCain is viewed favorably by 62% of voters and unfavorably by 35%. The Democrat’s ratings are 50% favorable, 49% unfavorable.

The survey also found that while 78% of voters in Texas say finding new energy sources is an urgent national need, 63% also feel that way about reducing the amount of energy Americans now consume. Given the choice, however, 64% of Texan voters say finding new sources is more important, while 26% say reducing consumption should be the top priority.

When it comes to campaigns, 61% of voters in Texas believe candidates will break the rules in order to help individuals who contribute money to their campaigns. Just 19% disagree. However, the majority (57%) say media bias is a bigger problem in elections today than campaign contributions. A third (33%) take the opposite view.

President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 43% of voters in his home state, while 38% say he is doing a poor job. Those ratings are much more flattering than those found on the national level.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Texas
Likely Republican

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

54%

52%

54%

Obama (D)

44%

43%

41%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 21, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Texas Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/21/2008

54%

44%

09/29/2008

52%

43%

08/21/2008

50%

41%

07/30/2008

50%

41%

06/25/2008

48%

39%

06/02/2008

52%

39%

05/01/2008

48%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Texas

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

36%

Somewhat Favorable

30%

11%

Somewhat Unfavorable

16%

15%

Very Unfavorable

17%

37%

Not Sure

0%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.