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Texas: McCain Leads by Nine for Second Straight Month

John McCain continues to lead Barack Obama by nine points in Texas. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the Republican ahead 50% to 41%. When “leaners” are included, McCain leads 52% to 44%.

McCain also had a nine point lead a month ago in the Lone Star State, after falling from a thirteen point lead in May.

Nationally, in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, the race between McCain and Obama remains very close.

In Texas, the race among unaffiliated voters is quite close. This month, McCain leads 45% to 42% among those voters. The Republican’s lead among those voters has fallen significantly since the last poll, when he led 49% to 32%.

While McCain has a big advantage among men, the two candidates are even among women. McCain leads 58% to 33% among married voters in Texas, while Obama has a 59% to 34% advantage among voters who are not married.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are overwhelmingly favored to win the 34 Electoral College Votes from Texas this November—current prices give the GOP a % chance of winning. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants (it costs nothing to join).

Texas has voted for the Republican candidate in every election for the past twenty-eight years. At the time this poll was released, Texas was rated as a “Safely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

McCain’s favorability ratings have remained stable this month. He is viewed favorably by 60% of voters and unfavorably by 37%. Meanwhile, Obama’s marks have declined somewhat in the Lone Star State. The Democrat is viewed favorably by 46%, down from 50% last month. He is viewed unfavorably by 51%, up from 48% last month.

Most voters in Texas (62%) believe gun laws will be stricter if Obama is president. One in five voters (20%) believe gun laws would be less restrictive. While 74% of Republicans say Obama would increase restrictions of gun laws, 48% of Democrats agree, along with 63% of unaffiliated voters.

Eighty-five percent (85%) oppose an increase in the federal gas tax, even after being told that as people drive less there is less money available for highway repairs. Texas voters are split on whether the federal gas tax should be permanently eliminated--45% say it should while 33% disagree.

President George W. Bush receives good or excellent ratings from 41% of voters in his home state. That’s a better report card than he gets nationally. Forty-four percent (44%) of Texas voters think he is doing a poor job.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Texas
Likely Republican

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

54%

52%

54%

Obama (D)

44%

43%

41%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 30, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Texas Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/21/2008

54%

44%

09/29/2008

52%

43%

08/21/2008

50%

41%

07/30/2008

50%

41%

06/25/2008

48%

39%

06/02/2008

52%

39%

05/01/2008

48%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Texas

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

36%

Somewhat Favorable

30%

11%

Somewhat Unfavorable

16%

15%

Very Unfavorable

17%

37%

Not Sure

0%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.