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Texas: McCain Leads by Nine

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Texas shows the presidential race has grown slightly closer over the past month. John McCain now leads Barack Obama 48% to 39% in the Lone Star state.

Last month, McCain enjoyed a thirteen-point lead over the Democrat. In May, the Republican had just a five-point lead in the state. Nationally, since clinching the Democratic nomination, Obama has held onto a modest lead in the Rasmussen daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

McCain has a dominant 50% to 33% lead among men in Texas, but the two candidates are essentially tied among women.

The Republican draws support from 79% of voters in his own party, Obama is backed by 72% of Democrats and McCain leads 49% to 32% among unaffiliated voters. He led 56% to 30% among unaffiliateds in early June.

McCain is viewed favorably by 61% and unfavorably by 34%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorably and 48% unfavorable.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are overwhelmingly favored to win the 34 Electoral College Votes from Texas this November—current prices give the GOP a % chance of winning. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants (it costs nothing to join). Texas has voted for the Republican candidate in every election for the past twenty-eight years. At the time this poll was released, Texas was rated as a “ Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

A third of voters in Texas think Hillary Clinton should be Barack Obama’s running mate, while 45% disagree.

While just over a quarter (26%) of voters in Texas think McCain is too old to President, over half (53%) think Obama is too inexperienced.

Two-thirds of Texas voters (69%) favor drilling in offshore oil wells while 22% disagree. If offshore drilling were allowed, 59% of voters in Texas think it would be likely that gas prices would go down, while 34% find it unlikely.

Texas native President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 41% of Texas voters, while 42% think the president is doing a poor job.

In the state’s U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent John Cornyn leads Democratic challenger Rick Noriega by double-digits.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Texas
Likely Republican

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

54%

52%

54%

Obama (D)

44%

43%

41%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 25, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Texas Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/21/2008

54%

44%

09/29/2008

52%

43%

08/21/2008

50%

41%

07/30/2008

50%

41%

06/25/2008

48%

39%

06/02/2008

52%

39%

05/01/2008

48%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Texas

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

36%

Somewhat Favorable

30%

11%

Somewhat Unfavorable

16%

15%

Very Unfavorable

17%

37%

Not Sure

0%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.