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Election 2008: Texas Presidential Election
McCain 54%, Obama 44% in Texas

John McCain is moving ahead in Texas, where he now tops Barack Obama by 10 points, 54% to 44%, in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state (see crosstabs).

For the four previous months, McCain has led by nine. His new 54% showing is also his highest ever since polling on the race in Texas began in the spring. Forty-four percent (44%) is also Obama’s best showing to date.

Now just one percent (1%) of Texas voters say they are undecided.

Seventy-two percent (72%) believe McCain will carry the Lone Star State on Election Day, but 20% think Obama will win the state’s 34 Electoral College votes. Jimmy Carter in 1976 was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win Texas.

Nationally, Obama continues to hold a modest lead over McCain in Rasmussen Reports’ daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Incumbent Republican John Cornyn remains well ahead of his Democratic opponent in Texas’ race for the U.S. Senate.

McCain is supported by 91% of Texas Republicans and four percent (4%) of Democrats. Ninety-four percent (94%) of the state’s Democrats and nine percent (9%) of GOP voters back Obama. McCain leads by 14 points among unaffiliated voters.

The Republican leads among male voters by 19 points and among women by four. Hispanics favor Obama to McCain 54% to 42%.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McCain a % chance of carrying Texas. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants (it costs nothing to join).

McCain is viewed favorably by 66% of Texas voters, unfavorably by 33%. Forty-seven percent (47%) have a favorable opinion of Obama versus 52% who regard him unfavorably.

Forty-three percent (43%) say the economy is the important issue in the election, and Texas voters trust McCain more than Obama on this issue by 15 points. Forty-five percent (45%) also disagree with Obama’s belief that it’s good for everybody when the government spreads wealth around, but 42% agree with the Democratic candidate.

For 25%, national security is the number one issue, and here, too, Texas voters trust McCain more, 60% to 38%.

New presidential polling data also has been released this week from Colorado, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia. See an overview of all state polls and the latest Electoral College projections. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).

Half of Texas voters (50%) believe it is more likely that people will vote illegally on Election Day than that legal voters will be denied the chance to cast their ballots. But 31% think the opposite is more likely to occur.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) say would-be voters should be required to show photo identification before being allowed to vote. Just nine percent (9%) disagree.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) believe elections are fair to voters, but 26% disagree. Sixty-one percent (61%) are Very confident that their vote will be counted. Only two percent (2%) are not at all confident of that.

Even in Texas, where he served as governor before being elected president, George W. Bush gets more bad marks than good for his job performance. While 37% say Bush is doing a good or excellent job as president, 44% rate his performance as poor.

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See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

 

Texas Likely Republican

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

54%

52%

54%

Obama (D)

44%

43%

41%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 21, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.

 


 

 

Texas Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/21/2008

54%

44%

09/29/2008

52%

43%

08/21/2008

50%

41%

07/30/2008

50%

41%

06/25/2008

48%

39%

06/02/2008

52%

39%

05/01/2008

48%

43%

 

 


 

 

Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Texas

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

36%

Somewhat Favorable

30%

11%

Somewhat Unfavorable

16%

15%

Very Unfavorable

17%

37%

Not Sure

0%

1%

 

 


 

 

Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205

 

 


 

About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.