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Pennsylvania: McCain 44% Obama 43%

What a difference two weeks of intense campaigning can make. The final two weeks of campaigning in the Pennsylvania Primary may not have changed the outcome of the Democratic race, but it helped John McCain in the Keystone State.

Two weeks ago, in Pennsylvania , Hillary Clinton enjoyed a nine-point lead over McCain and Barack Obama had an eight-point edge over the Republican hopeful. Now, however, Clinton’s lead is down to five points and Obama trails McCain by a point.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania finds McCain with a statistically insignificant 44% to 43% advantage over Obama. Clinton attracts 47% of the vote against McCain while the Republican earns 42%. In early March, McCain was essentially even with both Democrats.

Clinton is currently supported by 78% of Democrats, Obama by 65%. Among unaffiliated voters in the state, McCain leads Clinton by twelve and Obama by five. One bonus for McCain is that his support among Republicans has increased after two weeks of heavy Democratic campaigning. Once again, it appears that Obama and Clinton may provide the key to unifying the GOP base.

McCain and Obama are each viewed favorably by 51% of the state’s voters, Clinton by 49%. For Obama, that’s a six-point decline over the past two weeks. Clinton’s numbers are down four points. McCain has gained a point during the same two week period.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning Pennsylvania’s twenty-one Electoral College Votes this fall. John Kerry won the state for the Democrats in 2004 by a narrow 51% to 48% margin. Four years earlier, Al Gore won the state by four percentage points. Immediately prior to release of this poll, Pennsylvania was rated as “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Just 29% of Pennsylvania voters say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. Most (54%) say he is doing a poor job.

Governor Ed Rendell, a strong Clinton supporter, earns better reviews—44% good or excellent and 28% poor.

Nationally, new data shows that Democrats are trusted more than Republicans on most key issues of Election 2008. However, McCain significantly outperforms the Republicans brand and is trusted more than Obama or Clinton on most issues . One issue that stands apart from this general pattern is the question of dealing with Government Ethics and Corruption. On this topic, Obama has the edge over McCain while McCain has the edge over Clinton.

Nationally, McCain is in a very close race with both Clinton and Obama. Results are constantly updated in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Pennsylvania Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

46%

46%

42%

Obama (D)

52%

52%

51%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports April 24, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Pennsylvania Trends: McCain vs. Clinton

Date

McCain

Clinton

5/21/2008

39%

50%

4/24/2008

42%

47%

4/9/2008

38%

47%

3/10/2008

46%

44%

2/14/2008

44%

42%

1/8/2008

48%

42%

Pennsylvania Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/01/2008

46%

52%

10/30/2008

47%

51%

10/27/2008

46%

53%

10/06/2008

41%

54%

09/28/2008

42%

50%

09/24/2008

45%

49%

09/21/2008

45%

48%

09/14/2008

47%

47%

09/07/2008

45%

47%

08/19/2008

40%

45%

07/23/2008

42%

47%

06/22/2008

42%

46%

05/21/2008

43%

45%

04/24/2008

44%

43%

04/09/2008

39%

47%

03/10/2008

44%

43%

02/14/2008

39%

49%

01/08/2008

46%

38%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Pennsylvania

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

32%

40%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

22%

11%

Very Unfavorable

23%

31%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.