If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

 

Obama Leads 48% to 42% in Pennsylvania

Barack Obama continues to widen his lead over John McCain in Pennsylvania, where the Democrat is now ahead 50% to 42% in the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

Just three days ago Obama was ahead by four. Two weeks ago the race was tied in the Keystone State.

Three percent (3%) of Pennsylvania voters support Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, and two percent (2%) back Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr. That is the highest level of third party support found in any battleground state.

Republicans have viewed Pennsylvania, with its 21 Electoral College votes, as a traditionally Democratic state that might swing into the McCain column, but the continuing economic turmoil is hurting the GOP candidate here as it is elsewhere around the country.

Nationally, after weeks of a neck-and-neck race, Obama has begun pulling away from McCain in the last several days in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls).

In Pennsylvania, both McCain and Obama have the support of 84% of the members of their respective parties, but Obama now leads among unaffiliated voters 45% to 28%.

Women support Obama by a sizable 59% to 35% margin, while men back McCain 50% to 39%.

Among white voters in Pennsylvania, McCain ahead 48% to 42%. The Republican is viewed favorably by 59% percent of white voters and unfavorably by 41%. For Obama, it’s 52% favorable and 48% unfavorable (full demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of white voters would not be comfortable at all with Obama as president, while 31% feel that way about McCain. Forty-one percent (41%) say the same of Sarah Palin as vice president, but only 31% would not be comfortable with Democrat Joseph Biden in the number two slot.

More than three-quarters of Pennsylvania voters (77%) say they are certain of the presidential candidate they intend to vote for, including 78% of Republicans and 86% of Democrats. But 23% say they may still change their minds before Election Day.

The economy is the most important issue in the election according to 46% of voters, but 25% say national security is more important. Obama is trusted more on the economy and jobs 52% to 39%. McCain is trusted more on national security and the war on terror by a 51% to 43% margin.

Voters trust Obama in general more 49% to 42% but are evenly divided on which candidate they would ask advice from if they were facing the toughest decision of their lives.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a % chance of carrying Pennsylvania. At the time this poll was released, Pennsylvania was rated as “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper righthand corner of this article.

Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel jointly release a series of battleground state polls every Monday at 6 p.m. Eastern. See overview of all polling released this week with results from Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Additional state polls are released each day at 5 p.m. Eastern. The Rasmussen daily Presidential Tracking Poll is released each morning at 9:30 Eastern.

Governor Ed Rendell, a Democrat, is given good or excellent grades for his job performance by 39%, but 25% rate his performance as poor.

Thirty percent (30%) say President Bush is doing a good or excellent job, while 57% say his performance is poor.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Pennsylvania Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

46%

46%

42%

Obama (D)

52%

52%

51%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 28, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Pennsylvania Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/01/2008

46%

52%

10/30/2008

47%

51%

10/27/2008

46%

53%

10/06/2008

41%

54%

09/28/2008

42%

50%

09/24/2008

45%

49%

09/21/2008

45%

48%

09/14/2008

47%

47%

09/07/2008

45%

47%

08/19/2008

40%

45%

07/23/2008

42%

47%

06/22/2008

42%

46%

05/21/2008

43%

45%

04/24/2008

44%

43%

04/09/2008

39%

47%

03/10/2008

44%

43%

02/14/2008

39%

49%

01/08/2008

46%

38%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Pennsylvania

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

32%

40%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

22%

11%

Very Unfavorable

23%

31%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.