In Oregon, Barack Obama leads John McCain 46% to 37%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey. These results are virtually identical to those from a month ago. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 40%.
These results mark the fourth time in five statewide polls this year that Obama has enjoyed a lead ranging from six to nine percentage points. Once, enjoying a bounce from his participation in Oregon’s Democratic Presidential Primary, he opened a fourteen point lead. Nationally, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll continues to show Barack Obama holding a modest lead over John McCain.
Obama is viewed favorably by 62% of Oregon voters, McCain by 55%. For both men, that’s an improvement over the past month.
Oregon voters are much closer to the national average when it comes to the question of a federal 55 miles-per-hour speed limit. Thirty-five percent (35%) favor the concept and 56% are opposed.
Fifty percent (50%) of Oregon voters say protecting the environment is more important than reducing the price of gas and oil. Thirty-four percent (34%) disagree and take the opposite view.
Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especial when the results have a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, Obama leads McCain 47% to 38%. A month ago, he led by ten points in the three-poll average.
Oregon, with seven electoral votes, has gone for Democratic candidates in every presidential election since 1988, although in three of those elections the winner had 47% of the vote or less. Sen. John Kerry carried the state with 51% of the vote in 2004 versus 47% who voted for President Bush and 1% for independent candidate Ralph Nader.
Just 29% of Oregon voter say that President is doing a good or excellent job, down from 32% last month. Fifty-three percent (53%) say he is doing a poor job, unchanged from a month ago.
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This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 15, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
See Methodology.
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Oregon Trends: McCain vs. Obama |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Date |
McCain |
Obama |
|
10/30/2008 |
42% |
54% |
|
41% |
54% |
|
|
43% |
54% |
|
|
47% |
51% |
|
|
37% |
47% |
|
|
37% |
46% |
|
|
06/11/2008 |
38% |
46% |
|
38% |
52% |
|
|
42% |
48% |
|
|
40% |
49% |
|
|
Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Oregon |
||
|---|---|---|
|
McCain |
Obama |
|
|
Very Favorable |
27% |
43% |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
28% |
15% |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
24% |
10% |
|
Very Unfavorable |
20% |
29% |
|
Not Sure |
2% |
2% |
|
Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary |
|
|---|---|
|
160 |
|
|
260 |
|
|
118 |
|
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
