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Election 2008: Oregon Presidential Election
Obama 54%, McCain 42% in Oregon

Chalk Oregon up as Obama country all the way.

Barack Obama leads John McCain 54% to 42% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state, taken just five days before the election. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and one percent (1%) are undecided.

In mid-October,the Democrat had a 13-point lead, and he’s been well ahead of his Republican opponent here all year. The race was closest in mid-September when Obama led by just four, but as in much of the country, McCain’s fortunes in Oregon fell as Wall Street’s woes began to dominate the news.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Oregon voters now say Obama is the candidate most likely to carry their state on Tuesday, but 18% think McCain will win here.

Obama has a 21-point lead among unaffiliated voters in the state. Men favor the Democrat by six points, women by 18.

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Democrats have carried the state in the last five presidential elections. Rasmussen Markets data gives the Democrats a % chance of winning Oregon’s seven Electoral College votes on Election Day. The state is rated “Likely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings.

Nationally, Obama has been leading McCain every day for more than a month in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. He also has a healthy lead in the Electoral College projections.

Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley has taken a slight lead over incumbent Republican Gordon Smith in the closing days of Oregon’s U.S. Senate race.

Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of Oregon voters, unfavorably by 39%. Fifty-five percent (55%) have a favorable view of McCain, while 44% regard him unfavorably. Obama’s numbers are largely unchanged from the survey two weeks ago, but McCain’s have improved.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Oregon voters say the economy is the most important issue in the election, while 24% believe national security is number one. Obama is trusted more than McCain on the economy, 53% to 40%, and edges McCain by two points in terms of voter trust on national security. In most states, McCain is more trusted in the latter area.

Forty-eight percent (48%) agree with Obama that when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody. Forty-one percent (41%) disagree, and 11% are undecided.

Forty-seven percent (47%) believe elections are fair to voters, but 34% disagree. Still, 63% are Very Confident that their voters will be counted, while just three percent (3%) are not at all confident.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Oregon voters say it is more likely that eligible voters will be denied the right to cast their ballots than that people will vote illegally. Nearly as many (37%) say the opposite is more likely to occur. Twenty-three percent (23%) are not sure.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) say those who want to vote should be required to show photo identification before being allowed to do so, but 29% disagree and 14% are undecided.

Thirty percent (30%) say President Bush is doing a good or excellent job, while 55% say his performance is poor.

Battleground state polls released Monday showed Obama leading in Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

In Missouri and North Carolina, the race remains a toss-up while McCain leads by five in his home state of Arizona. Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-160. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 313-160.

Other new polls show McCain ahead in Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Montana and Mississippi while Obama has the advantage in New Mexico and Pennsylvania. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

 

Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

Oregon Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

42%

43%

40%

Obama (D)

54%

53%

52%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 30, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Oregon Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/30/2008

42%

54%

10/14/2008

41%

54%

10/09/2008

43%

54%

09/15/2008

47%

51%

08/07/2008

37%

47%

07/15/2008

37%

46%

06/11/2008

38%

46%

05/07/2008

38%

52%

03/26/2008

42%

48%

02/13/2008

40%

49%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Oregon

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

27%

43%

Somewhat Favorable

28%

15%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

10%

Very Unfavorable

20%

29%

Not Sure

2%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.