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Obama Now Leads McCain in Ohio

Barack Obama has pulled in front of John McCain in Ohio. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone poll in the state finds Obama leading 49% to 47%.

This is the first poll where Obama has been ahead since tracking of the race began in February. McCain has led by a single percentage points for the past three weeks, after a four-point lead in mid-September. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of voters say they are certain of who they will vote for, while 23% say there is still a chance they can change their minds.

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Obama now leads 49% to 42% among unaffiliated voters in Ohio. He also leads 53% to 43% among women while McCain has a 52% to 45% edge among men (See full demographic crosstabs.)

McCain is viewed favorably by 55% of Ohio voters and unfavorably by 44%. Obama’s ratings are 53% favorable, 46% unfavorable.

Voters still trust McCain more by a 48% to 45% margin. However, in early September, the Republican had a thirteen point advantage on this issue.

On the top issue of the economy, Obama has a 50% to 45% advantage. McCain leads his opponent on national security, 52% to 43%.

While 63% of voters say they would be at least somewhat comfortable with a McCain presidency, 59% say that of Obama. However, 32% say they would be extremely comfortable with Obama in office, while 23% say that about McCain. One in three voters (33%) in Ohio say they would not be comfortable with McCain in office, while 39% say the same about Obama.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Ohio voters say they would be at least somewhat comfortable with Joe Biden as Vice President, while only 54% say that about Sarah Palin. Just 29% of voters say they would not be at all comfortable with Biden as VP, compared to 42% who say the same about Palin.

Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a % chance of winning Ohio this November. Ohio is currently considered a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right-hand corner of this article.

New polling on the presidential race is also being released today from Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Missouri. See an overview of all five state polls and the latest Electoral College projections. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).Recent statewide presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico , North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members . Learn More .

Governor Ted Strickland earns good or excellent job approval ratings from 49% of voters, while 17% say he is doing a poor job.

President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 30% of voters, while 49% give his job performance a poor rating.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Ohio Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

49%

48%

45%

Obama (D)

49%

48%

48%

This telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 12, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Ohio Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

49%

49%

10/26/2008

45%

49%

10/19/2008

49%

47%

10/14/2008

49%

49%

10/12/2008

47%

49%

10/05/2008

48%

47%

09/28/2008

48%

47%

09/24/2008

47%

46%

09/21/2008

50%

46%

09/14/2008

48%

45%

09/08/2008

51%

44%

08/18/2008

45%

41%

08/21/2008

46%

40%

06/17/2008

44%

43%

05/14/2008

45%

44%

04/08/2008

47%

40%

03/13/2008

46%

40%

02/19/2008

42%

41%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Ohio

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

40%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

10%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

11%

Very Unfavorable

20%

37%

Not Sure

3%

3%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.