Voters in North Carolina are split on their presidential preferences but are clearly unhappy with the economic bailout plan passed by Congress.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Tar Heel State voters finds Obama attracting 49% of the vote while McCain earns 48%. A week ago, Obama was up by three. Two weeks ago, Obama held a two-point advantage.
Before these last three polls, McCain had been ahead in five of the six Rasmussen Reports polls conducted this year, and the two candidates were tied once. In all polls, the race for North Carolina’s Electoral College votes has been competitive.
The numbers aren’t so close when it comes to the bailout bill: Just 26% agree it was a good thing to do while 51% disagree. Only 26% believe it will help the economy. Another 26% say it will hurt while 30% believe the $700-billion taxpayer investment will have no impact on the nation’s economy.
Nationally, Obama has opened a fairly stable lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and in the Electoral College. Forty-one states are projected to vote for the same party they did four years ago. Nine states that voted Republican in 2004 are now either leaning in the Democratic direction or, like North Carolina, are a toss-up.
In North Carolina, McCain and Obama are each viewed favorably by 55% of voters.
Fifty-five percent (55%) also give positive reviews to Joseph Biden, the Democratic vice presidential nominee. Fifty-one percent (51%) say the same about McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin.
Obama has a solid lead among voters who earn less than $40,000 a year while most earning $60,000 or more favor McCain. McCain leads by a two-to-one margin among regular churchgoers in North Carolina while Obama leads by a similar margin among those who rarely or never attend a house of worship (see full demographic crosstabs).
Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a % chance of winning North Carolina’s Electoral College votes this fall. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join, so add your voice to the collective wisdom.
During Election 2004, President Bush won 56% of the North Carolina vote. Today, just 32% say he is doing a good or an excellent job. Fifty-one percent (51%) rate the president’s job performance as poor.
As this poll is released, Obama has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by Bush, McCain is trailing in four, and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 248-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.
See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.
This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 8, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
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North Carolina Trends: McCain vs. Obama |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Date |
McCain |
Obama |
|
11/02/2008 |
50% |
49% |
|
48% |
50% |
|
|
49% |
48% |
|
|
50% |
48% |
|
|
48% |
51% |
|
|
48% |
48% |
|
|
48% |
49% |
|
|
47% |
50% |
|
|
47% |
49% |
|
|
50% |
47% |
|
|
46% |
42% |
|
|
45% |
42% |
|
|
45% |
43% |
|
|
48% |
45% |
|
|
47% |
47% |
|
|
51% |
42% |
|
|
Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in North Carolina |
||
|---|---|---|
|
McCain |
Obama |
|
|
Very Favorable |
37% |
45% |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
18% |
8% |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
18% |
12% |
|
Very Unfavorable |
25% |
34% |
|
Not Sure |
1% |
2% |
|
Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary |
|
|---|---|
|
160 |
|
|
260 |
|
|
118 |
|
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.