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Election 2008: North Carolina Presidential Election
McCain Posts One-Point Lead in North Carolina

John McCain holds the narrowest of leads in North Carolina in the final Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state before Election Day.

McCain leads Barack Obama by a statistically insignificant one-point in North Carolina, 50% to 49%. One percent (1%) are undecided. This is only the fourth time McCain has hit the 50% mark all year.

Four days ago, McCain was down by two points. A week ago, he was ahead by just one. On October 12, it was a tie. It’s been that kind of race in North Carolina where McCain had led for months until Wall Street’s high-profile woes in mid-September began hurting the Republican’s numbers nationwide.

Five percent (5%) of North Carolina voters say they still may change their minds before voting tomorrow. Right now that group includes five percent (5%) of McCain voters and four percent (4%) of Obama voters.

Obama has a 57% to 43% lead among those who have already voted.

Fifteen percent (15%) of North Carolina Democrats are supporting McCain, while just seven percent (7%) of Republicans are backing Obama. The Republican also has taken a nine-point lead among unaffiliated voters after trailing among that group last week.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll has shown Obama with support from 50% to 52% of voters natonewide every single day for 39 consecutive days.

Final Fox News/Rasmussen polling in five other key battleground states – Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio and Virginia – also will be released today. McCain has an identical one-point lead in Florida but lags behind in Colorado and Virginia. The race is tied in Missouri and Ohio. All six states went Republican in the 2004 election, and without all six in his column, McCain will have great difficulty winning the White House.

In North Carolina, 65% of whites support the Republicans while 93% of non-white voters prefer the Democrat.

McCain has double-digit leads among evangelical Christians, Catholics and Protestants. Obama leads 76% to 23% among those of other faiths.

McCain is viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 43%. Fifty-three percent (53%) have a favorable opinion of Obama, while 46% view him unfavorably. These numbers are basically unchanged from a week ago.

North Carolina voters are fairly evenly divided over which candidate they trust more in general and which one they would seek advice from if they were faced with the toughest decision of their lives.

Forty-seven percent (47%) rank the economy as the most important issue in the election, while 21% say national security is of premier importance. Again, voters are evenly divided on which candidate they trust more on the economy, but they give McCain the nod by five points on national security.

Indicative of McCain’s problems in the last week is the response specifically from those who say economic issues are the most important, which is the view among most voters nationwide. Those voters trust Obama more than McCain on the economy 70% to 28%.

Among voters who rate national security as most important, McCain is more trusted on that issue 75% to 24%.

One-third of voters (33%) say the most important quality they are looking for in a candidate is his ability to bring about needed change. Twenty-six percent (26%) say it is most important for a candidate to share their values, while 24% look first for the right experience. Thirteen percent (13%) say it’s most important that the candidate cares about people like them.

Forty-eight percent (48%) say they would be very or extremely comfortable with Obama as president, while 45% say the same of McCain. Forty-three percent (43%) would be not at all comfortable with Obama in the White House, and 38% feel the same way about the Republican.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of North Carolina voters are extremely interested in the presidential election, and 44% say they are very likely to participate in an exit poll.

For exit poll watchers, however, it is worth noting that while 55% of potential Obama voters are very likely to take an exit poll, just 35% of those who plan to vote for McCain agree.

In the Electoral Collegeprojections, Rasmussen Reports now shows Obama leading 260 to 160. Whenstates that are leaning in one way or the other are included, Obamaleads 313 to 160. A total of 270 Electoral College votes are needed to win the White House (Predict how many Electoral College votes Obama will win this year).

 

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This telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on November 2, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.



North Carolina Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

50%

49%

48%

50%

49%

48%

50%

48%

48%

51%

48%

48%

48%

49%

47%

50%

47%

49%

50%

47%

46%

42%

45%

42%

45%

43%

48%

45%

47%

47%

51%

42%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in North Carolina

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

37%

45%

Somewhat Favorable

18%

8%

Somewhat Unfavorable

18%

12%

Very Unfavorable

25%

34%

Not Sure

1%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.