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New York: Democrats Poised to Win Big

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New York shows Hillary Clinton leading John McCain 60% to 31%. Barack Obama has a seventeen-point advantage over the presumptive Republican nominee, 52% to 35% (see video analysis).

For Clinton, the latest poll reflects a significant improvement over the past month. Obama’s numbers are about the same as they were a month ago. Nationally, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows McCain in a very competitive race with both Clinton and Obama.

Both Democrats are viewed favorably by 58% of the state’s voters. McCain earns positive reviews from 50%.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning the Empire State’s thirty-three Electoral College Votes this fall. John Kerry won the state for the Democrats in 2004 by eighteen points. Four years earlier, Al Gore won the state by twenty-five percentage points. Immediately prior to release of this poll, New York was rated as “Safely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Thirty-five percent (35%) of the state’s Democrats believe that Clinton should drop out of the race for their party’s nomination. Nineteen percent (19%) say the same about Obama. Those figures are similar to the national average.

Forty-seven percent (47%) of New York voters believe that Clinton would be the stronger candidate against McCain in the fall. Thirty-six percent (36%) see Obama as the stronger general election candidate.

New York voters are evenly divided as to who they think will win the nomination—43% say Obama and 40% Clinton.

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New York Safe Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts .

In Trade

McCain (R)

37%

37%

35%

Obama (D)

57%

55%

59%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports April 29, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


New York Trends: McCain vs. Clinton

Date

McCain

Clinton

05/28/2008

29%

59%

04/29/2008

31%

60%

03/11/2008

38%

50%

New York Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/14/2008

37%

57%

09/15/2008

42%

55%

08/04/2008

32%

52%

06/30/2008

29%

60%

05/28/2008

33%

52%

04/29/2008

35%

52%

03/11/2008

38%

51%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in New York

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

22%

39%

Somewhat Favorable

27%

24%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

15%

Very Unfavorable

23%

19%

Not Sure

5%

3%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.