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Election 2008: New York Presidential Election
Obama Ahead by 20 in New York

There are no surprises in the latest Rasmussen Reports polling in New York. Empire State voters still heavily favor Barack Obama in the presidential election.

Obama leads John McCain 57% to 37%.

Obama’s lead has grown seven points since last month, when he led his opponent 55% to 42%. The Democrat has held double-digit leads since regular tracking began in March.

New York has been safely blue in recent presidential elections, going for Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 over George W. Bush by double-digit margins.

Among unaffiliated voters in New York, Obama leads 47% to 39%. Though he enjoys a big lead among women in the state, men are evenly divided, favoring McCain 46% to 45%.

Obama is viewed favorably by 63% and unfavorably by 34%. McCain’s reviews are 49% favorable, 47% unfavorable.

Rasmussen Markets data currently give Obama a % chance of winning New York’s 33 Electoral College votes this fall. Immediately prior to release of this poll, New York was rated as “Safely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Most New Yorkers (90%) said they were likely to tune into the third and final presidential debate last night, and 65% believe the candidates’ performances in debates are at least somewhat important in determining who to vote for.

Nearly half of New Yorkers (47%) think Obama’s campaign is mostly positive, while nearly an equal number (48%) think McCain’s campaign is generally negative.

Just 32% agree with the recently passed economic rescue plan, but 40% disagree. Democrats are more inclined than Republicans and unaffiliated voters to agree with it. However, a plurality of voters (40%) think the plan will help the economy. Only 19% say it will hurt the current economic situation and 21% say the plan will have no impact.

A majority of New York voters favor raising taxes on higher income Americans. Half (52%) say raising taxes on those who make over $250,000 a year as Obama has proposed would be good for the economy, while 27% say it would be bad. Democrats are much more in favor of the idea than Republicans.

The poll also found that most voters (63%) are at least somewhat confident in Governor David Paterson to steer the state through its current financial problems. Just 31% say they are not confident in the governor’s abilities. One in five voters (20%) would like to see Paterson, who earns a 50% job approval rating, run for the office in 2010.

A third of voters (33%) would like to see New York City Major Michael Bloomberg run for governor in 2010, while 28% would like to see Senator Hillary Clinton fight for the job.

New polling on the presidential race was released this week from the closely-contested states of Virginia, North Carolina,Florida and Missouri. See an overview of the state polls and the latest Electoral College projections. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).

President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from just 24% of voters in New York, while 60% give his job performance a poor rating.

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This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 14, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.

New York Trends: McCain vs. Obama



















Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in New York




Very Favorable



Somewhat Favorable



Somewhat Unfavorable



Very Unfavorable



Not Sure



Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary





Toss-Ups & Leaners


Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.