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Election 2008: New Jersey Presidential Election
Obama Leads by 15 in the Garden State

Barack Obama leads John McCain 57% to 42% in New Jersey in the final Rasmussen Reports telephone survey before Election Day.

The Democrat now receives his highest level of support in the Garden State since tracking began in February. Last month, he led his Republican opponent by just eight percentage points in the state.

Obama now has a 17-point lead among unaffiliated voters in New Jersey. In October, the candidates split the unaffiliated vote. Women in New Jersey favor Obama by a 64% to 35% margin, while men lean towards McCain, 50% to 48%.

A month ago, favorability ratings for the candidates were identical. Now, 63% of New Jersey voters have a favorable view of Obama, while 53% view McCain favorably. The Democrat is viewed unfavorably by 36%, while the Republican is viewed unfavorably by 44%.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a % chance of winning New Jersey’s 15 electoral votes this November. George H.W. Bush in 1988 was the last GOP presidential candidate to carry New Jersey where no Republican has won a statewide office since 1997. John Kerry carried New Jersey over President Bush -- 53% to 46% -- in 2004.

It’s no surprise that the plurality of New Jersey name the economy as the top electoral issue this year, and voters trust Obama more on economic matters by a 55% to 40% margin. Obama holds a 56% to 38% advantage among unaffiliated voters on this issue.

On national security, Garden State voters trust Obama more 53% to 43%. Obama also holds a big lead among unaffiliated voters on the issue.

 

The last Fox News/Rasmussen Reports from six battleground states - Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia -- also will be released today.

Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida,Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine,Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada,New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina,Ohio,Oregon, Pennsylvania,South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

Governor Jon Corzine (D) earns good or excellent ratings from 31% of voters in his state, while 34% give his job performance a poor rating.

President Bush’s job performance is rated good or excellent by just 26% of voters, while 54% rate it as poor.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on November 2, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.


New Jersey Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/08

42%

57%

42%

50%

42%

55%

40%

48%

39%

44%

39%

48%

46%

45%

45%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in New Jersey

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

27%

45%

Somewhat Favorable

26%

18%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

11%

Very Unfavorable

24%

25%

Not Sure

3%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.