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New Hampshire: McCain Gains Ground, Holds Two-Point Advantage

John McCain has gained ground for the third straight month and now holds a slight two-point advantage over Barack Obama in the swing state of New Hampshire.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Granite State finds McCain attracting 49% of the vote while Obama earns 47%. A month ago, it was Obama by a point.

At the moment, the presidential race in New Hampshire is a toss-up. Nationally, the race remains close in the Daily Presidential Tracking poll.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Obama voters say they will vote with enthusiasm for their candidate, a feeling shared by 68% of McCain voters.

Twenty-six percent (26%) of McCain voters say they’re voting primarily against Obama while 20% of Obama voters are voting primarily against McCain.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 60% of New Hampshire voters, Obama by 54%. Those figures reflect a three-point improvement for McCain and a single-point decline for Obama.

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Obama leads by a wide margin among voters under 30, but his opponent has the edge among older voters. McCain is supported by 92% of New Hampshire Republicans while Obama gets the vote from 88% of Democrats in the state. For McCain, those figures reflect a stunning improvement.

Two months ago, he was supported by just 78% of New Hampshire Republicans.

Obama currently has a modest lead among unaffiliated voters who represent a plurality in the state. Full demographic crosstabs are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

The Democrat’s support has steadily decreased in the Granite State since he clinched the nomination in early June. Obama fell from an 11-percentage point lead in mid-June to a six-point lead in July and a single point advantage in August. McCain was ahead in New Hampshire during March and April.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is currently given a % chance of winning New Hampshire's four Electoral College votes this year. It is widely considered a swing state, primarily because it is one of the few states to switch sides between Election 2000 and Election 2004. New Hampshire has voted for the Democrat in three out of the last four presidential elections, though John Kerry won by just a single point in 2004. With release of this poll, New Hampshire moves from “Leans Democratic” to “Toss-Up”in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 53% in New Hampshire and unfavorably by 45%. For Delaware Senator Joe Biden, the numbers are 49% favorable and 45% unfavorable. Feelings both for and against are more strongly held about Palin. These results are similar to the national average.

Fifty-one percent (51%) say Palin was the right choice for McCain while 40% say Obama made the right decision in selecting Biden.
Eighty-two percent (82%) believe Palin is politically conservative while 51% view Biden as politically liberal.

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See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

New Hampshire
Leans Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

44%

46%

44%

Obama (D)

51%

50%

49%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on September 23, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


New Hampshire Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/30/2008

44%

51%

10/23/2008

46%

50%

10/01/2008

43%

53%

09/23/2008

49%

47%

08/19/2008

42%

43%

07/23/2008

41%

47%

06/18/2008

39%

50%

05/21/2008

43%

48%

04/30/2008

51%

41%

03/16/2008

46%

43%

02/11/2008

36%

49%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in New Hampshire

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

31%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

8%

Very Unfavorable

20%

33%

Not Sure

3%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.