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Election 2008: New Hampshire Presidential Election
Obama 51%, McCain 44% in New Hampshire

Barack Obama has now stretched his lead over John McCain in New Hampshire to seven points, 51% to 44%, in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. One percent (1%) support a third-party candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.

A week ago Obama had a four-point lead in the Granite State after leading by 10 at the beginning of the month.

Obama has a 14-point lead among unaffiliated voters going into the final days of the campaign. He has a 19-point lead among female voters but trails by three among men.

The Democrat leads by three points among married voters and by 17 among those who are not married (see crosstabs).

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Democrat John Kerry won New Hampshire in 2004, after George W. Bush carried it four years earlier. Bill Clinton won the state in 1992 and 1996.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is currently given a % chance of winning New Hampshire's four Electoral College votes this year. At the time this poll was released, New Hampshire is rated as “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings .

Democrat Jeanne Shaheen continues to lead Republican Senator John Sununu in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate race.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of New Hampshire voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, while 41% view him unfavorably. McCain is regarded favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 44%. The numbers are a slight improvement for the Democrat, slightly worse for the Republican.

For 42% the economy is the most important issue in the election, while 22% say national security is number one. Obama has improved his standing in terms of voter trust in both areas since last week.

New Hampshire voters trust Obama more on the economy by five points. Among voters who rank the economy as the most important issue in the campaign, Obama leads McCain 69% to 28%.

McCain is trusted more than Obama on national security by three points. Among those voters who say national security is the most important issue, McCain is trusted more 70% to 29%.

Twenty-four percent (24%) say President Bush is doing a good or excellent job, but 52% say his job performance is poor.

Battleground state polls released Monday showed Obama leading in Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia. With these latest results, Rasmussen Reports has moved Florida from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic.”

In Missouri and North Carolina, the race remains a toss-up while McCain leads by five in his home state of Arizona. Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 313-174.

Other new polls show McCain ahead in Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Montana and Mississippi while Obama has the advantage in New Mexico, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

Recent statewide presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

 

New Hampshire Leans Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

44%

46%

44%

Obama (D)

51%

50%

49%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 30, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


New Hampshire Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/30/2008

44%

51%

10/23/2008

46%

50%

10/01/2008

43%

53%

09/23/2008

49%

47%

08/19/2008

42%

43%

07/23/2008

41%

47%

06/18/2008

39%

50%

05/21/2008

43%

48%

04/30/2008

51%

41%

03/16/2008

46%

43%

02/11/2008

36%

49%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in New Hampshire

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

31%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

8%

Very Unfavorable

20%

33%

Not Sure

3%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.