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Montana: Obama Leads McCain By Five

Barack Obama is leading John McCain by five percentage points in Montana. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama attracting 48% of the vote while McCain earns 43%.

In April, the numbers were reversed with McCain leading 48% to 43%. That was before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and defeated Hillary Clinton by fifteen points in Montana. Fifty percent (50%) of Montana Democrats want Clinton named as Obama’s running mate. Just 29% of all Montana voters would like to see Clinton as the Vice Presidential nominee.

Against McCain, Obama leads among voters under 50, including a twenty-seven point lead among voters under 30. McCain leads among those over 50. Obama is supported by 89% of Montana Democrats while McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans.

Twenty-five percent (25%) of Montana voters say McCain is too old to be President while 42% say Obama is too inexperienced.

It would be truly stunning if Obama could turn Montana into a competitive state this November. George W. Bush won Montana’s 3 Electoral College Votes by twenty percentage points in 2004 and by twenty-five points four years earlier. Even Bob Dole managed to win Montana, albeit by a narrow 44% to 41% margin (Ross Perot picked up 14% of the vote).

The last Democrat to win Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992. He did so with 38% of the vote. The first President Bush got 35% of the Montana vote while Ross Perot picked up 26%.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a % chance of winning Montana this November. With release of this poll, Montana shifts from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. Nationally, Obama has been enjoying a modest but steady lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for several weeks.

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McCain is viewed favorably by 58% of Montana voters, Obama by 57%. For both men, that reflects a slight improvement since April.

Fifty percent (50%) of Montana voters say it’s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than it is to win the War. Forty-four percent (44%) hold the opposite view and say victory is more important.

Sixty-six percent (66%) support offshore oil drilling and 51% say such drilling is likely to bring down the price of gas and oil. Those figures are similar to the national average. A recent national survey found that 48% of American voters say lower gas prices would do more for the economy than tax cuts or an economic stimulus program.

Forty percent (40%) say free trade is good for the nation while 29% take the opposite view.

Sixty-six percent (66%) say that the federal government itself has become a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interest. Seventeen percent (17%) disagree. Only 19% believe the government today represents the will of the American people.

Democratic Governor, Brian Schweitzer gets great reviews—64% of the state’s voters say he is doing a good or an excellent job. Just 14% rate his work as poor.

Despite winning 59% of the vote in Montana less than four years ago, George W. Bush now earns good or excellent ratings from just 37% of the state’s voters. Forty-eight percent (48%) say he is doing a poor job.

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Montana Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

50%

52%

49%

Obama (D)

46%

44%

43%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 1, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Montana Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/29/2008

50%

46%

10/01/2008

52%

44%

09/09/2008

53%

42%

07/29/2008

45%

44%

07/01/2008

43%

48%

04/06/2008

48%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Montana

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

27%

39%

Somewhat Favorable

26%

10%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

11%

Very Unfavorable

26%

39%

Not Sure

1%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.