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Montana: McCain Surges Ahead by Double-Digits

John McCain has opened a double digit lead over Barack Obama in Montana. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Treasure State finds McCain leading by eleven, 53% to 42% (demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members).

That’s quite a change from late July when the race was a toss-up. Montana has voted for a Republican candidate in nine of the last ten presidential elections but Obama had made clear his intention to compete for the state’s three Electoral College votes. The candidate himself spent the Fourth of July in Butte, Montana and his campaign ran significant television advertising in the state. However, just before the Democratic National Convention, Obama stopped advertising in Montana and several other traditionally Republican states.

With release of this poll, Montana shifts from “Leans Republican” to “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right corner of this article.

Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain is essentially even in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

McCain is now viewed favorably by 60% of Montana voters, little changed from 59% in July. However, the number with a Very Favorable opinion of the Republican hopeful jumped from 26% in July to 35% today.

Obama earns positive reviews from 50% of Montana voters, down slightly from 53% in July.

McCain’s running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 59% of Montana voters, a figure that includes 44% with a Very Favorable opinion of her. This is the sixth Rasmussen Reports state poll released since Palin was selected as McCain’s Vice Presidential nominee and in all six her Very Favorable ratings have topped 40%. None of the other candidates on the national ticket have reached that level in any of the states. Nationally, at the end of the Republican National Convention, Palin was more popular than Obama, McCain, or the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, Joe Biden.

In Montana, Biden is viewed favorably by 44% and unfavorably by 47%.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters in Montana say McCain made the right choice in picking Palin as his running mate. Just 35% say Obama made the right choice. Nearly half of voters (48%) in Montana see Palin as very conservative, while just 28% see Biden as very liberal.

Seventy percent (70%) of McCain voters are now voting for him with enthusiasm while 28% are primarily voting against Obama.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Obama voters support their candidate enthusiastically while 18% are primarily voting against McCain.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a % chance of winning Montana this November. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and share your insights .

Rasmussen Reports released five swing state polls on the Presidential race last night for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Additional state poll results will be released at RasmussenReports.com each Monday at 6:00 p.m. Eastern and Tuesday-Friday at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Premium Members can get an advance look at the results.

President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 37% of Montana voters, while 44% say he is doing a poor job.

In Montana’s Senate race, incumbent Max Baucus (D) is cruising towards re-election in November.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

Montana Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

50%

52%

49%

Obama (D)

46%

44%

43%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 8, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Montana Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/29/2008

50%

46%

10/01/2008

52%

44%

09/09/2008

53%

42%

07/29/2008

45%

44%

07/01/2008

43%

48%

04/06/2008

48%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Montana

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

27%

39%

Somewhat Favorable

26%

10%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

11%

Very Unfavorable

26%

39%

Not Sure

1%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.