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Election 2008: Montana Presidential Election
McCain Struggling in Montana

The race for Montana’s three Electoral College votes is a Toss-Up.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state shows John McCain with 50% of the vote while Barack Obama picks up support from 46%. However, the presence of Ron Paul on the ballot adds an additional problem for the Republican hopeful. Six percent (6%) of McCain voters might vote for a third-party candidate while Obama faces no such threat.

Overall, two percent of the state’s voters are committed to voting for a third party candidate while two percent remain undecided.

If the election is perceived as being very close, most of those who currently lean in McCain’s direction would be likely to vote for the Republican candidate. However, the more it seems like Obama is going to win, the more likely it is that some of these voters will decide to file a protest vote.

At the beginning of October, McCain had an eight-point lead in Montana. In September, he was up by eleven. Noticing the trend, groups affiliated with the Republican National Committee have started advertising in the state. Earlier, that step was considered unnecessary.

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McCain is now viewed favorably by 53% of Montana voters, down three points from a month ago and down seven points from two months ago.

Obama earns positive reviews from 49% of Montana voters, a figure that has changed little since September.

Ninety-one percent (91%) of Republicans plan to vote for McCain, including 7% who might vote for a third-party option. McCain also is supported by 53% of unaffiliated voters, including 10% who are considering a third-party option. Obama earns the vote from 93% of Democrats. Men are far more likely than women to consider voting third party instead of McCain (see full demographic crosstabs).

Forty-eight percent (48%) of Montana voters trust McCain more than Obama on economic issues while 46% hold the opposite view. McCain does a bit better when it comes to national security issues.

Montana has voted for a Republican candidate in nine of the last 10 presidential elections, but Obama had made clear his intention to compete for the state’s Electoral College votes. The candidate himself spent the Fourth of July in Butte, Montana, and his campaign ran significant television advertising in the state.

Nationally, Obama has held the lead over McCain every single day in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for more than a mont.

Today, Rasmussen Reports released new poll results for North Carolina, New Mexico, Montana, Kentucky and Nebraska.

Last night, results were released from Texas, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Other polling has recently been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

With release of this, Montana is moving from “Likely Republican” to “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a % chance of winning Montana this November. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and share your insights .

President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 30% of Montana voters, while 49% say he is doing a poor job.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

New polling released today from Indiana also moved that state to the “Toss-Up” category.

State polling released yesterday showed Obama with double digit leads in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico. McCain has a solid lead in Alaska. In other races, Republican Norm Coleman has moved ahead of Al Franken in the Minnesota Senate race. In the Alaska Senate race—the first since Ted Stevens was convicted—Democrat Mark Begich has taken the lead. North Carolina Senator Elizabeth Dole is trailing in her bid for re-election.

 

Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

Montana Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

50%

52%

49%

Obama (D)

46%

44%

43%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 29, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Montana Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/29/2008

50%

46%

10/01/2008

52%

44%

09/09/2008

53%

42%

07/29/2008

45%

44%

07/01/2008

43%

48%

04/06/2008

48%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Montana

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

27%

39%

Somewhat Favorable

26%

10%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

11%

Very Unfavorable

26%

39%

Not Sure

1%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.