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Presidential Race Tightens in Missouri

Missouri’s presidential election is now a one percentage point race in favor of Barack Obama. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state finds the Democrat ahead of John McCain 48% to 47%.

The latest numbers represent the closest the race has been since early June. Last week, Obama was leading 49% to 44%. While McCain had been holding fairly consistent leads through out the year, Obama pulled ahead in October following the stock market debacle.

The race is essentially tied among unaffiliated voters in Missouri. Last week, Obama held a fourteen-point lead among those voters. However, last week’s survey was conducted the day after Obama held two massive rallies in the state.

Men favor McCain by a 48% to 47% margin, while women choose Obama 49% to 46%.

White voters choose McCain 52% to 43%, while Obama leads 88% to 9% among all other voters in Missouri (see full demographic crosstabs).

McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of Missouri voters and unfavorably by 40%. Obama’s ratings are 53% favorable, 47% unfavorable.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McCain a % chance of winning Missouri’s 11 Electoral College votes this fall.

George W. Bush won the state by seven points in Election 2004 and by three points four years earlier. But Missouri remains a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

A third of voters in Missouri (33%) say the ability to bring about needed change is the most important quality in a candidate, while 28% say a candidate who shares similar personal values is the top quality. One in five voters (20%) in Missouri say the right experience is key. While Republicans favor personal values and experience over everything else, most Democrats say the ability to bring change is the top requirement. Unaffiliated voters in Missouri favor change and personal values the most.

While voters in Missouri trust McCain overall by a 48% to 46% margin, they trust Obama more to fix the economy by an identical margin. McCain still holds the edge on national security, 54% to 43%.

If faced with life’s toughest decision, 50% of Missouri voters say they would turn to McCain for advice, while 43% say they would consult Obama.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of voters in Missouri say it is likely they will partake in an exit poll on Election Day, while 29% say the opposite. Democrats are more likely than Republicans and unaffiliated voters to say they will answer an exit poll.

Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel also have jointly released several other battleground state polls today, including numbers from Florida, Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia. Rasmussen Reports earlier released new results from Arizona and California.

Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 286-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (Predict how many Electoral College votes Obama will win this year).

 

Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Missouri Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

49%

47%

46%

Obama (D)

49%

49%

48%

This telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 26, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Missouri Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

49%

49%

10/26/2008

47%

48%

10/19/2008

44%

49%

10/14/2008

46%

52%

10/12/2008

47%

50%

10/05/2008

47%

50%

09/11/2008

51%

46%

08/07/2008

48%

41%

07/07/2008

47%

42%

06/03/2008

42%

43%

05/06/2008

47%

41%

03/24/2008

53%

38%

02/12/2008

42%

40%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Missouri

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

35%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

12%

Somewhat Unfavorable

21%

11%

Very Unfavorable

22%

34%

Not Sure

2%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.