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Election 2008: Missouri Presidential Election
Presidential Race Tightens in Missouri

Barack Obama and John McCain are now tied at 49% in Missouri, according to the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.

Last week’s Fox/Rasmussen poll found Missouri to be a one-point race in favor of Obama. Neither candidate has reached 50% level of support in the state in the last three surveys.

Ninety-two percent (92%) of voters in Missouri say they are certain of their vote at this time, while 8% say they still might change their minds.

McCain has pulled ahead among unaffiliated voters this week, 50% to 45%. Last week, the race was essentially tied among those voters. His lead also bounced among men, from one percentage point a week ago to seven in the latest poll. Obama still holds a 53% to 45% among women in Missouri.

McCain leads 52% to 46% among white voters in Missouri, while Obama leads 82% to 15% among non-white voters.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McCain a % chance of winning Missouri’s 11 Electoral College votes tomorrow.

McCain is viewed favorably by 56%, Obama by 54% in Missouri. McCain is viewed unfavorably by 43%, while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 45%.

George W. Bush won the state by seven points in Election 2004 and by three points four years earlier. But Missouri remains a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Nearly a third of voters in Missouri (32%) still think a candidate’s ability to bring about needed change is the most important quality, while 30% now say sharing similar personal values is key. One in five voters (20%) value a candidate who has the right experience the most. While Republicans put the most value on values and experience, Democrats place more importance on the ability to bring about needed change. Unaffiliated voters are more evenly divided between change, values and experience.

While 38% of Missouri voters say they would extremely comfortable with Obama in the White House, 28% say that of McCain. However, while 34% say they would not be at all comfortable with a McCain presidency, 40% say the same about Obama.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of voters in Missouri now say it is likely they will take the time to fill out an exit poll tomorrow, down from 69% a week ago. Thirty percent (30%) say the opposite. As was the case a week ago, Democrats are much more likely than Republicans and unaffiliated voters to partake in an exit poll.

Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel have also released several other battleground state polls today, including final numbers from Florida, Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia. Rasmussen Reports also released final results from New Jersey.

Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-160. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 286-160. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (Predict how many Electoral College votes Obama will win this year).

 

Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey , New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Missouri Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

49%

47%

46%

Obama (D)

49%

49%

48%

This telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on November 2, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Missouri Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

49%

49%

10/26/2008

47%

48%

10/19/2008

44%

49%

10/14/2008

46%

52%

10/12/2008

47%

50%

10/05/2008

47%

50%

09/11/2008

51%

46%

08/07/2008

48%

41%

07/07/2008

47%

42%

06/03/2008

42%

43%

05/06/2008

47%

41%

03/24/2008

53%

38%

02/12/2008

42%

40%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Missouri

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

35%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

12%

Somewhat Unfavorable

21%

11%

Very Unfavorable

22%

34%

Not Sure

2%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.