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Minnesota: Obama’s Lead Down to Four Points

Much of Barack Obama’s 12-point lead over John McCain has disappeared in Minnesota. He is now ahead of his Republican rival by only four percentage points 46% to 42%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Minnesota voters.

With “leaners” factored in, Obama leads 49% to 45% (Demographic Crosstabs available for Premium Members.)

Obama’s 19-point lead among women voters last month is now down to 13. McCain has moved ahead among male voters who now favor the Republican 47% to 42%. Last month, Obama had a slight edge among men.

McCain is now regarded favorably by 60% of Minnesota voters, unfavorably by 39%. Obama is viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 42%.

Picking Minnesota’s Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate might cost McCain more votes in the state than he will gain. Thirty-four percent (34%) of Minnesota voters say they are less likely to vote for the GOP candidate if Pawlenty is the vice presidential nominee, while 28% say it makes them more likely to vote for McCain. Thirty-five percent (35%) say it will have no impact on how they vote.

Nearly a third of unaffiliated voters (32%), however, say putting Pawlenty on the GOP ticket makes them less likely to vote for it, while 22% say it makes them more likely to vote for McCain.

Only 11% say McCain is Very Likely to pick Pawlenty.

Minnesota has gone for the Democratic presidential candidates in the last eight elections. John Kerry won the state 51% to 48% over President Bush in 2004.

The Senate race in Minnesota between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken remains a toss-up.

Like voters nationwide, 42% in Minnesota rank economic issues as their number one concern in this election cycle, roughly the same as last month. National security, which topped election concerns in 2004, is now viewed that way by only 23%.

A solid majority of Minnesota voters (71%) think the upcoming Republican National Convention in St. Paul will have a positive short-term impact on business and tourism. Far fewer (45%) believe the convention will have long-term impact in those areas, with nearly as many (40%) saying it will have no impact.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) believe the St. Paul Police Department is as prepared as it can be for the September 1-4 convention, but 15% do not think so. A quarter of voters (26%) are not sure.

President Bush’s job performance ratings have improved slightly in Minnesota. Now 33% rate his performance good or excellent, compared to 29% a month ago. Forty-nine percent (49%) give the president poor marks versus 55% in July.

This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 13, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.


Minnesota Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

43%

55%

41%

56%

45%

52%

44%

52%

42%

46%

37%

49%

34%

52%

39%

52%

38%

53%

38%

52%

43%

47%

38%

53%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Minnesota

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

28%

45%

Somewhat Favorable

26%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

25%

11%

Very Unfavorable

21%

27%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

160

260

118


Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.