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Minnesota: Obama Maintains Steady Lead

The race between Barack Obama and John McCain has changed little in Minnesota. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the Democrat in front 52% to 45%.

The match-up has changed just a single point since last month when Obama was ahead 52% to 44%. Obama has maintained relatively consistent leads since tracking began, with exceptions of polls conducted in August and March, when he led by four percentage points.

Minnesota is historically a blue state, casting its votes for Democratic candidates in the last eight elections. In 2004, John Kerry won the state by a 51% to 48% margin.

Nationally, Obama has been gaining ground steadily in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll ever since the turmoil on Wall Street began to dominate the news.

The candidates are nearly tied among unaffiliated voters in Minnesota, with Obama just edging out his opponent 48% to 46%. McCain maintains a solid 54% to 45% lead among men, while Obama leads 59% to 37% among women (Premium Members can view full demographic crosstabs.)

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Obama is viewed favorably by 60% of voters in Minnesota and unfavorably by 40%. McCain’s ratings are 53% favorable, 47% unfavorable.

Reviews are even more positive for Obama’s running mate, Joseph Biden. The vice presidential nominee is viewed favorably by 62% of voters and unfavorably by 36%. By contrast, Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 52%.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats currently have an Democratic Party Nominee to win Minnesota's Electoral College Votes in 2008 Election% chance of winning Minnesota’s 10 Electoral College votes in November (results updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). Minnesota is considered a “Likely Democratic” state in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

A third of voters in Minnesota (34%) say the nation’s recent economic problems have made them more likely to vote for Obama, while 27% said the same about McCain. A plurality (38%) say the issue has had no impact on their voting decision. Unaffiliated voters are slightly more likely to say the recent crisis has impacted their vote in Obama’s favor than McCain's.

Voters trust Obama more when it comes to handling the economy by a 51% to 44% margin. Just five percent (5%) of voters give the economy good or excellent ratings, while 63% give it a poor rating. Only two percent (2%) say the economy is getting better, compared with 87% who say it is getting worse.

On the national scale, consumer and investor confidence have hit all time lows in the Rasmussen Consumer Index.

Minnesota voters say creating economic growth is a more important issue than reducing the gap between the rich and poor by a 56% to 36% margin. They also see this as McCain’s goal, while the majority thinks Obama’s top priority is reducing the income gap.

Investors in Minnesota, who account for 75% of voters, favor Obama by a 51% to 48% margin.

Just 27% of voters give President Bush good or excellent job approval ratings, while 55% rate his job performance as poor.

New statewide poll results from Alaska,Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia have been released this week and confirm the national trend favoring Obama.

Recent statewide presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Minnesota
Likely Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

43%

43%

42%

Obama (D)

55%

54%

51%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 7, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Minnesota Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

43%

55%

10/22/2008

41%

56%

10/07/2008

45%

52%

09/18/2008

44%

52%

08/13/2008

42%

46%

07/22/2008

37%

49%

07/10/2008

34%

52%

06/11/2008

39%

52%

05/22/2008

38%

53%

04/22/2008

38%

52%

03/19/2008

43%

47%

02/16/2008

38%

53%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Minnesota

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

28%

45%

Somewhat Favorable

26%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

25%

11%

Very Unfavorable

21%

27%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.